It was nice to get a decently profitable week last week, with 3.7pts returned. Chelsea were big contributors, as was Daniel Munoz, but the most pleasing winner was Brentford getting the better of Newcastle.
The data and eye-test backed up the bet so it's always nice when it all clicks like that.
Onto this weekend, and I had to restrict myself somewhat, with there being a load of fancies at 3pm on Saturday, a couple of extra of which, while not included in the staking plan, I have mentioned in the copy.
Anyhow, lets hope for another weekend of profit.
Title contenders (yes, really) Chelsea take on a Brentford side who have been Jekyll and Hyde this season, mainly due to the schedule.
The Bees are W7 D1 at home and D1 L6 away, playing only bottom half teams at home and facing five of last season's top eight on the road. They face another of those sides here on their travels here, and we shouldn't expect a different outcome.
The stat that stands out about Thomas Frank's side though is the number of shots they concede. Only bottom side Southampton (277) have faced more attempts than the Bees (272 - 18.2 per game).
This is a bet that would have won in six of seven Brentford away matches this season, with Frank's men facing 22.1 shots per game on their travels.
Chelsea have found a groove, and had 26 shots away at Southampton - the only side ahead of Brentford in the shots conceded table. In their last four home games against sides chasing Europe, and sides who don't concede anywhere near as many shots as the Bees, they have fired 22, 17, 17 and 17.
Hitting 19 looks very manageable here given the data then, and I wouldn't put anyone off a ladder, with 20+ at 11/10 and 21+ at 29/20 with Unibet.
Score prediction: Chelsea 3-1 Brentford ()
This is a really big game for both managers. Bottom side Southampton are surely running out of patience with Russell Martin, while Tottenham are 11th in the league having won just one of their last eight in all competitions, putting Ange Postecoglou on the hot-seat.
While the stubbornness of both in terms of their footballing ideologies and tactics is a hard watch for fans of both clubs, especially at this current moment, the beauty about these managers for the neutral and, in particular, the betting public, is that we know what we are going to get from both sides on a week-to-week basis.
He'd been on a bit of a barren run before scoring against Chelsea last weekend, going four without a goal, but he continues to get on the end of good chances. So far this season, Solanke has averaged 0.57 xG per 90, a figure up on last seasons 0.53, and he unsurprisingly leads his side on that metric.
All Sunday bets - Odds correct at 1430 (13/12/24)
1pt William Saliba to score anytime in Arsenal vs Everton at 12/1 (Unibet)
2.5pts Under 3.5 Goals in Liverpool vs Fulham at 8/11 (William Hill)
1.5pts Newcastle 18+ total shots vs Leicester at 49/50 (Unibet)
1.5pts Over 5.5 Cards in Wolves vs Ipswich at 13/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Youri Tielemans to be carded in N Forest vs Aston Villa at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Georginio Rutter 3+ total shots in Brighton vs C Palace (14:00) at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Erling Haaland to score a header in Man City vs Man Utd (16:30) at 15/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Until someone stops Arsenal's new set-piece tactic, we simply have to keep backing big-priced goalscorers. Across their last five games, Arsenal have scored six goals via corners and free-kicks, and while at first glance you may think Everton are an opponent who will stifle this angle, think again.
The Toffees, despite posing an attacking threat from such scenarios, rank 10th in terms of xG conceded from dead-ball situations (4.67), 11th for shots conceded (54) and ninth for goals conceded (4).
While that may seem ok, digging deeper it becomes apparent that they, like everyone else, are exposed from set-pieces by the league's best.
Sean Dyche's men have faced four sides who sit in the top seven for xGF from set-pieces so far this season and have conceded an average of 0.60 xGA, with two opposition centre-backs scoring in those four matches (Christian Romero and Marc Guehi).
Saliba has scored in his last two Premier League appearances, and with Gabriel expected to once again miss out, he looks the biggest threat from this angle of attack.
Jakub Kiwior is 14s but yet to have a shot this season, while Timber is shorter than Saliba 11s despite not posing as much of an aerial threat.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton ()
Liverpool didn't play last weekend and their title chances increased following Arsenal and Manchester City's dropped points. The Reds continue to play with absolute control, so much so that whenever they are hosting at Anfield, I love attacking the goal lines.
We can back UNDER 3.5 GOALS at 8/11 here, and that looks a fantastic bet.
The Reds have gone Under 3.5 Goals in 11 of their 14 Premier League games, while all seven of their home matches have seen this bet land. In total, their league matches at Anfield have averaged just 2.3 goals per game.
Ruud van Nistelrooy has had a dream start to life as Leicester manager, picking up four points from two games and scoring five goals in the process.
They have, however, ridden their luck massively. They needed two very late goals to earn a point against Brighton, conceding 16 shots at the King Power, while against West Ham they were comfortably second best on the xG metric (3.10 - 1.67) and shipped a huge 31 shots.
While the Magpies have only averaged 12.6 shots per home game, context is needed. So far at St. James' Park, Eddie Howe's men have faced Tottenham, Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, understandably failing to hit 18+ shots in any of those.
Their other three games saw them play Southampton, where they were reduced to 10-men early in the first half, Brighton and West Ham, with the latter two seeing them deliver 21 and 18 shots.
That's enough to give me confidence that they can surpass the required line against one of the most leaky defences in the division, who have conceded an average of 18 shots per away game.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Ipswich ()
This is a huge football match and it should deliver plenty of drama. It should also deliver plenty of cards, and that has to be the way in here.
The total card line is set at a high 5.5, but I think there is still value in backing OVER 5.5 CARDS at 13/10.
You may think this is a bit of a stretch, but these two, while also being in the bottom three, are two of the best sides for fouls and cards.
Ipswich have been shown an average of 2.8 cards per game this season, committing 12.6 fouls per 90, while Wolves have been handed 2.7 cards per game and committing 13.0 fouls per 90 this season
This could be a fun and feisty match between two sides pushing for European football. We have Sam Barrott overseeing proceedings, and he is one the Premier League's best for cards, averaging 5.89 cards per game.
So, delving into the player cards makes plenty appeal, especially with YOURI TIELEMANS TO BE CARDED available at 9/2.
The Belgian has already been carded three times this season, and is averaging 1.4 fouls per 90, but the fact he will be tasked with dealing with Morgan Gibbs-White is the real reason I love this bet.
All Saturday bets - Odds correct at 1020 (13/12/24)
I've been waiting for the right opportunity - and price - for a certain selection, and this weekend is the right time. GEORGINIO RUTTER is a shot merchant at the Amex, and I'm happy to back him to have 3+ SHOTS on Sunday.
It's actually staggering just how lopsided his shot record is for Brighton. 21 of his 31 shots this season have come at home, with him covering this line in four of his six home starts. In total, when playing in front of his own fans, he averages 4.3 shots per 90.
A big game here between two sides who are going through their own turbulent times. City have one win in 10. United sit 13th in the league after back-to-back defeats.
I fully expect City to win here though, and it could be argued their price is value, but after not putting up ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE A HEADER for the first time in a while last weekend and him scoring with his head, I'm going back in again with the price of 15/2 large.
I wouldn't put anyone off just backing him to score at 4/5, but I'm happy to reach for a bigger price after delving into the stats.
In the Premier League this season, Haaland has taken 21 shots with his head. In fact, his headed efforts account for 30% of his total shots. He's scored just once from chances equating to 3.38 xG, and get this for a stat; Haaland's xG per 90 with just his head alone (0.22) is greater than Marcus Rashford's (0.16) overall.
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