The midweek round of fixtures were brutal for us. Chris Wood missed a glorious one-on-one in the first half of City v Forest, a chance he has been slotting away with ease this season, which would have seen us cash the BTTS bet, and then there's Caoimhin Kelleher.
His bizarre error - an attempt to dummy the ball out of play from a Newcastle set-piece without realising an attacker was behind him - cost us profit and his team three points.
The selections wiped out over half the profit we had accumulated so far this season. We have to dust ourselves off and go again in what is a relentless schedule over the Christmas period.
Arsenal are vibing at the moment. Since the international break, they have won all four matches, scoring 15 and conceding just three. They look a frightening proposition for any side right now, but a trip to Fulham is a potential banana skin.
The Cottagers sit fourth on expected points this season, and have won four of seven at home. This season Marco Silva's men have already beaten Newcastle and won the xG battle at both the Etihad and at Spurs.
We know Fulham won't change their approach, playing an attacking brand of football, and they should create a couple of good openings here, as they have done in every league game this term.
Former Arsenal man ALEX IWOBI has been in scintillating form of late, and he looks overpriced at above 6/4 to register 1+ SHOT ON TARGET. He's as short as 8/11 in places.
The Gunners, who could again be without key defensive personnel (Gabriel and Ricardo Calafiori missed out in midweek), have conceded in seven of their last eight away games, with gaps still there to be exploited by their opponents.
Iwobi has been a real attacking threat this season, highlighted by his brace in midweek against Brighton, and has delivered a shot on target in all of his last six matches when being deployed solely as a winger, right and/or left.
Bournemouth were impressively dominant against Tottenham in midweek, and are rightly short priced favourites this weekend. However, their away results are a concern.
The Cherries have won just two of seven, losing three. At the same time, Ipswich are winless at home this term, but have avoided defeat in four of seven, holding Fulham, Aston Villa and Manchester United already.
It's going to be a no bet from me here.
Score prediction: Ipswich 0-1 Bournemouth ()
There's not doubt about it, Leicester were fortunate to beat West Ham in midweek. They conceded a lorry-load of chances equating to over 3.0 xG, and a similar performance would see them likely swatted aside by Brighton here.
The Seagulls though, are tough to trust away from home. They have won three and lost three of their seven, but lost the xG in five of those.
At 8/13, they are short enough to leave alone, and the closest I came to making a bet was Brighton 17+ shots at 5/6 (Unibet). The Foxes have conceded an average of 18.1 shots per game this season, though the Seagulls are far from prolific shooters away from home (12.7 per away game).
Score prediction: Leicester 1-3 Brighton ()
Tottenham are in a rut, and Ange Postecoglou is a man on the hot-seat. They have won just one of their last six games in all competitions, that coming against Manchester City at the Etihad, a game they could have so easily been 2-0 down in after 20 minutes.
Ipswich have beaten them at home, and their most recent loss in midweek against Bournemouth was just a shocking display from start to finish. Ange's men lost the xG battle 3.71 - 0.87 in that contest.
Spurs have only failed to score in one home game this season, when hosting Arsenal, while Chelsea have conceded in 12 of their 14 league games to date. Five of their eight league wins have seen both teams score too, including three away.
The Blues are purring, but I think they have a huge rest advantage ahead of this game. Not only did they play Wednesday to Spurs' Thursday, but Maresca rang the changes at Southampton, resting key players, and after going up comfortably against 10-men, brought off more key players early.
Tottenham meanwhile are already depleted, especially at the back, where Ben Davies went off injured in midweek. They were given the runaround at Bournemouth, and this will be their fifth game in 15 games, with all four league matches being against good sides.
I've mentioned that game against Bournemouth a number of times already, but for all the hosts good chances, it was in fact a set-piece goal that decided the game. That is an issue that continues to plague Spurs, even more so without key defensive starters.
When he has started he has been an attacking threat, firing eight shots in eight games across all competitions this season. He's taken four shots equating to 0.72 xG in the Conference League, being very close to opening his account for the season, but the big 6ft 4in centre back will be licking his lips at the thought of attacking Cole Palmer's in-swinging corners, being marked by someone inferior in size and stature.
Spurs have conceded seven times from set-pieces in all competitions this season, with four centre-backs finding the net. In a strange quirk, all four centre-back goals have come at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Against an undermanned Spurs defence, who are already fragile from set-pieces, a small bet on Badiashile to be the fifth CB to net in Spurs' own back yard makes plenty of appeal. It goes without saying that if he doesn't play and Adarabioyo or Disasi start instead, back them to find the net.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-3 Chelsea ()
Saturday 12:30
1.5pts Everton +1.0 Asian Handicap vs Liverpool at 6/5 (bet365) - VOID
1pt Virgil van Dijk to be carded in Everton vs Liverpool at 23/4 (Unibet) - VOID
Saturday 15:00
2pts Ollie Watkins to score anytime in Aston Villa vs Southampton at evens (Unibet)
1.5pts Daniel Munoz 1+ total shot in C Palace vs Man City at 11/8 (bet365)
1.5pt Brentford to win (Draw no Bet) vs Newcastle at 11/10 (General)
Saturday 17:30
1pt Casemiro to be carded in Man Utd vs N Forest at 41/20 (Unibet)
1pt Kobbie Mainoo to be carded in Man Utd vs N Forest at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
As already mentioned, the hosts will be bang up for this and have shown a real steely nature at home, averaging just 1.23 xGA per home game across their last five. This bet, backed blind, would have won in five of their seven home league games, pushed in one and lost only once, way back on the opening weekend of the season.
Liverpool have made hard work of things away from home this term, ever since dismantling Milan 3-1 in the Champions League. In the seven ensuing away games, Arne Slot's men have won five but all have been by a single goal margin - a repeat of which would mean a push for us - and failed to win twice.
Interestingly, the Reds have conceded nine times in their last four road games, including twice at sorry Southampton and three at Newcastle in midweek, perhaps hinting at chinks in the armour.
A second bet here comes from the card markets. If I quizzed you as to who the most carded player has been over the last six Merseyside derby, would your answer be VIRGIL VAN DIJK?
Probably not right, but he is the correct answer. The Dutchman has been cautioned in three of his last five appearances in this derby, with all of them coming in his last three visits to Goodison Park.
Either way, at bigger than 5/1, he's well worth a punt TO BE CARDED in which will likely be a feisty, foul-heavy contest. Michael Oliver is the referee here too, which is a good appointment for card backers. He's averaged 5.0 per game in the league this season.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Liverpool ()
Southampton are just down right bad. They have one win and 11 defeats this season, with Russell Martin's men already seven points from safety. It looks bleak.
Aston Villa snapped their winless run in midweek, and will certainly fancy their chances of making it back-to-back successes, as I do.
I am surprised to see even money available about OLLIE WATKINS TO SCORE ANYTIME here. We are talking about the starting striker of a team 2/5 to get the win on the day, agains a side who prop up the division and who have conceded 30 goals in 14 games this term.
The Englishman has seven goals to his name already this season, netting in two of his last three, though interestingly, five of his seven goals have come at Villa Park.
I'm pretty keen to get BRENTFORD on side here. The Bees have won six and drawn one of their seven home games this season, and while their schedule has been kind, Thomas Frank's side have been dominant in every contest.
Their best win has come against a good Bournemouth team, and I don't think Newcastle are much better than the Cherries. In fact, before midweek, I thought the Magpies had turned into a very average side.
They were excellent against Liverpool, playing with a level of energy and intensity we haven't seen from them for some time. It's all well and good doing that at home in front of a raucous crowd against a title contender, it's another to do it away against a fellow mid-table team.
There is every chance they fail to recover physically from that Wednesday effort, which certainly gives Brentford an edge.
This gives us security of money back should the game end all square. If we'd've backed this bet in all of Newcastle's last 28 away league games we would have six more wins than losses.
It looks like a great opportunity to take Newcastle on, with the market perhaps making them shorter off the back of one decent display at home, somewhat overlooking the fact that in their last away game against fourth-bottom Crystal Palace they registered just ONE shot in 90 minutes.
Score prediction: Brentford 3-2 Newcastle ()
City finally got back to winning ways in midweek when beating Nottingham Forest, but it wasn't as straight forward as the scoreline suggested, especially not in the first half.
Morgan Gibbs-White forced Stefan Ortega into a good save before Chris Wood squandered a one-on-one opportunity, after which City went up the other end and doubled their lead.
A rejuvenated Palace should get opportunities here, and my eyes are drawn to the 11/8 for DANIEL MUNOZ 1+ SHOT which is available at 11/8.
The Colombian has become a real attacking threat for Crystal Palace, registering at least one shot in six straight games, taking a total of 11 in that period.
Well, United were comfortably beaten in their first big test under Ruben Amorim, just reinforcing the size of the task that he faces. It doesn't get any easier either, with a good-in-transition Forest side visiting Old Trafford on Saturday.
Forest gave City a good game in the first half of their midweek match, and had Chris Wood slotted home his big chance, the score would have been 1-1 and who knows what would have happened given City's fragile mental state at the moment. Instead, Pep's side went right up the other end and made it 2-0.
Nuno's side look a big price to get a result in this one, but given what we have seen from Amorim in terms of rotating his XI nearly every game, another couple of bets stand out.
That's right, the English midfielder has already accumulated five yellow cards this season, while Casemiro has been booked in three of his last six across all competitions.
The bet comes alive when factoring that, not only are they asked to press intensely and aggressively in Amorim's system, but they will be up against an awkward Forest attack led by Morgan Gibbs-White.
Odds correct at 1025 (06/12/24)
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