Another new era begins at Manchester United, with Ruben Amorim taking over after a poor start to the season from Erik ten Hag.
Such a drastic change mid-season does mean it is difficult to be too confident around any selections, but one in particular has taken my fancy.
I'll be backing MANCHESTER UNITED TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET as Amorim takes his new team to Portman Road, with the 9/5 on offer very generous.
To be honest, even if this was an Erik ten Hag-led United, I'd still back the bet at this price, as for all the results and performances have been lacking this season, defensively they are drastically improved on last term.
Believe it or not, the Red Devils currently sit second in the league for clean sheets this season, keeping five in 11 outings, and two have those have come in their only two matches against the current bottom six.
Those two also happen to be Ipswich's fellow promoted sides Southampton and Leicester, United dispatching both 3-0. They allowed 0.42 and 0.63 non-penalty xGA respectively in those matches.
United's issues have come against the better sides. Liverpool and Spurs fired three past them (the latter with the caveat of United playing with 10-men for the second half), while Brighton also scored a couple.
West Ham managed to find the net twice but again there were some strange circumstances in that one. United limited the Hammers to just 0.04 xG in the first half, only to capitulate in the second and lose to a very, very dubious penalty call.
All in all, there are positives defensively, with United allowing less than 1.1 xGA in seven of 11 outings, and that provides a really solid foundation for Amorim to work from, and his 3-4-3 system should solidify things even more, with a defensive-minded double-pivot protecting a back three.
On Sunday, United face the side dead-last in terms of xGF per game this season (0.93), and as the new Portuguese coach gets his feet under the table, defensive solidity absolutely takes precedent over attacking flair.
Score prediction: Ipswich 0-1 Manchester United ()
2pts Chelsea to win and Under 4.5 Goals vs Leicester (12:30) at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Murillo to win 1+ foul in Arsenal vs N Forest at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Murillo to win 2+ fouls in Arsenal vs N Forest at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Nikola Milenkovic to win 1+ foul in Arsenal vs N Forest at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1.5pts Will Hughes to be carded in Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace at 13/5 (Unibet)
1pt Fulham to win and BTTS vs Wolves at 9/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1.5pts Man City to win and BTTS vs Tottenham at 7/5 (bet365)
1pt Heung-min Son to score or assist at 9/5 (William Hill)
1pt Erling Haaland to score a header at 7/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt e.w. Virgil van Dijk to score first in Southampton vs Liverpool (14:00) at 28/1 (Sky Bet, 1/3 1-99)
0.5pt Ibrahima Konate to score first in Southampton vs Liverpool (14:00) at 35/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt Ibrahima Konate to score anytime in Southampton vs Liverpool (14:00) at 11/1 (Unibet)
After the high of edging out Everton for a first league win of the season, Southampton were thumped back down to earth by fellow strugglers Wolves before the break. Now they must get ready to face the league leaders.
The trend with Southampton is a simple one - they can't defend set-pieces - and on Sunday they face a side possessing two huge attacking threats from dead-ball situations.
VIRGIL VAN DIJK and IBRAHIMA KONATE should be licking their lips at the thought of parading up for corners and free-kicks this weekend, and I'm going to split stakes on both of them TO SCORE FIRST, with the each-way offering providing us a bigger price than taking anytime on VVD, though for Konate it's better to take the two individually depending on where you bet.
Southampton have conceded the second most goals (7), the third most shots (58) and the most xGA (7.28) from set-pieces this season.
According to reports, Manchester City's injuries are healing ahead of hosting Tottenham.
Their likely starting line-up on Saturday - again, according to reports - is: Ederson; Walker, Stones, Akanji, Gvardiol; Kovacic, Gundogan; Bernardo, Foden, Savinho; Haaland.
Barring Ballon D'or winner Rodri, that's a near full strength XI, and that likely spells trouble for a Tottenham side missing both starting centre-backs here (Christian Romero and Micky van de Ven).
Spurs, while showcasing defensive deficiencies, have real firepower and it would be a surprise to see them fail to score at the Etihad in what should be a ding-dong tussle.
Both teams have scored in 17 of City's last 24 home games, with a City win and BTTS landing in 12 of those for a 50% strike rate.
In short, I think City will out-score Spurs on Saturday.
A couple of other angles for me, one focuses on a City weakness and the other a Spurs one.
City, even with Rodri in the team, have shown real struggles in dealing with fast breaks for some time now, and Spurs are the league's best at just that.
Ange's men have scored the most goals from fast breaks this season (7), while 10 of the 86 shots City have faced have come from such scenarios.
Spurs' captain has gone under the radar this season, but has scored three and assisted three in eight starts, with his expected goal involvement per 90 (xG + xA) an impressive 0.54.
He's one of the best at taking advantage of space on the counter, and has had a great time at the Etihad in recent years, scoring one and assisting three across his last three visits - this bet winning in two of those.
The final bet is one we've had a few times already this season, without reward; ERLING HAALAND TO SCORE A HEADER.
He's been mightily close for us, but no cigar just yet. This looks a good match-up for him to pounce, especially with Spurs missing their starting centre-backs.
This is a big game for Arsenal, who face fifth-placed Nottingham Forest looking to get back to winning ways - the Gunners failing to win any of their last four league matches.
Unfortunately for Mikel Arteta, he could be without some key players here. Ben White and Riccardo Calafiori are definitely out, while Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice are questionable having picked up injuries in their last match at Chelsea, both missing England's Nations League wins.
A glance at the pairs fouls won data would suggest that I'm mad for wanting to back this, both having been felled just once each, but this bet is more about Arsenal's propensity to foul opposing CB's through their high press.
Milenkovic is 11/8 to be fouled, with Murillo 5/2, and the latter's price in particular looks large given Arsenal have fouled nine of the 15 left-sided centre-back's they have faced. These bets are as short as 10/11 and 6/4 respectively elsewhere.
Arsenal are aggressive, and in Kai Havertz they have one of the more physical forwards in the league who doesn't mind throwing his weight around. Gabriel Jesus could also come into the game off the bench and he too is a fouling machine.
Given the stats around the left-sided CB's, I'll also have a small play on MURILLO 2+ FOULS WON.
Nine of the 15 LCB's have been fouled by Arsenal, with four of those being fouled twice or more. It's 16/1 on Sky Bet, 17/2 elsewhere.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Nottingham Forest ()
Crystal Palace's injury issues prior to the international break were so bad that captain Marc Guehi had to play central midfield alongside 21-year-old debutant Justin Devenny.
Post-break, Oliver Glasner should have Cheick Doucoure back fit to start after a lengthy lay-off, and WILL HUGHES returns from suspension meaning we should see a more accomplished midfield duo at Villa Park, with Eberechi Eze tough-and-go for this clash.
It's Hughes who appeals greatly though TO BE CARDED, as not only has he picked up five yellows already this term, but he'll be tasked with dealing with Villa's extremely tricky forwards, most notably Morgan Rogers.
He's 13/5 with Unibet to pick up a card which in isolation looks massive for a player booked in five of his last six matches across all competitions in which he's played over 15 minutes, and who has committed an average of 2.76 fouls per 90.
Factor in that Villa's midfield are excellent at getting their opponents carded - Rogers responsible for drawing nine opposition cards, Youri Tielemans six - and the price starts to look irresistible. He's 11/10 in places, and those that can't get on at Unibet should take the 12/5 with bet365 or the 9/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair.
Tim Robinson is the man in the middle, with his card per game average of 5.8 another huge positive for this bet.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Crystal Palace ()
Boy this one is a tough game to call.
Bournemouth have been sensational at home this season winning three of five against a tough schedule (NEW, CHE, SOU, ARS, MCI).
Wins against Arsenal and City have been thoroughly deserved, and so far this season their underlying data at the Vitality is excellent (1.85 xGF, 1.06 xGA per game).
So, I was all ready to back the hosts here at 11/8, but I just can't pull the trigger, with Brighton looking capable of beating anyone anywhere.
Not only were they brilliant in victory over Manchester City last time out, but they have been to Newcastle and Everton and won, holding Arsenal at the Emirates and pushing Chelsea and Liverpool close.
No bet for me in this one.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Brighton ()
This is another game I really struggled to find a strong betting angle.
The bookies look to have priced things pretty well, and I think the draw is a serious runner, the Toffees having held Newcastle and Fulham in their last two at Goodison Park.
Brentford are pointless in five away games, but they have faced Liverpool, Man City, Spurs, Man Utd and a good Fulham team.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Brentford ()
Fulham are legit. How legit is the question.
Are the capable of contending for a top four or six finish? Or are they just an eighth or ninth place team?
If that intro comes as a shock to you, and you are wondering what the hell I'm on about, well the Cottagers are seventh just a point off third, but more impressively they rank as the fourth best team this season according to xG data.
Both teams have scored in all five Fulham home games, with three of those resulting in a win for Silva's men.
The market has it more likely that Fulham win to nil as opposed to win and BTTS, which I simply don't agree with.
Score prediction: Fulham 3-1 Leicester ()
I'm very confident about a CHELSEA WIN here. And why wouldn't you be?
The Blues have been very impressive so far this season, and while their five wins from 11 games may not reflect it, Enzo Maresca's side are a team to get onside over the next few months.
Their two defeats have come to Manchester City and Liverpool, and the Blues have won three of four against sides in the bottom half of the table, though the deserved to win all four according to expected goals (xG: CHE 2.37 - 0.54 CRY).
Only two of Chelsea's 11 games have seen five or more goals this season, and it's the same for Leicester. I think there is a clear gulf between these two sides, with the Blues set to kick on off after a tough last four league games (LIV, NEW, MUN, ARS).
Score prediction: Leicester 0-2 Chelsea ()
Odds correct at 1650 (21/11/24)
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