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, especially with the outright bets, which returned +40.6pts profit. It's also worth highlighting just how much profit the entire Sporting Life football team has generated from outrights in the last two seasons... It's pretty ridiculous.

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Here's hoping for more outright success!


Go in again on Gunners

We'll start in the top division, where I'm happy to wade in again on ARSENAL TO WIN THE LEAGUE.

Last season they fell one point short when tipped at 5/1 on these pages, landing us each-way money, but I feel more confident this time around, for a number of reasons, and am keen to go back in again at a shorter price win-only.

They showcased an incredibly high level of resilience to push Manchester City all the way last term, something they failed to do the season before, staying on strongly by winning 13 of their last 15 league games.

Excellent performances were maintained right until the final whistle of the season, which was the issue in 22/23 where they 'bottled' the league.

Their levels over the last two campaigns have been incredible. They have only won two fewer and lost three more games than City over that span, highlighting just how close they have been.

The gap undoubtedly closed last campaign, as Arsenal's underlying process was identical to City's, and with question marks around Liverpool post-Jurgen Klopp, Chelsea and Manchester United's continuing issues and Tottenham having to deal with European football, for me this title race is a straight shoot-out between the best two sides in the country.

I've not even mentioned the looming 115 charges Manchester City face either. The hearing is in November, and given the case doesn't have a precedent, if found guilty, it is unclear what the punishment could be. It could be as serious as a huge point deduction or the club even being kicked out of the Premier League.

This could be serious for City, so much so that the bookies have priced Pep Guardiola's side as the 11th favourites to be relegated this season at 16/1 - taking no chances.

So, with all the off-field question marks around City, the other challengers looking weak and Arsenal performing at City's level last season, this could well be the year that the Gunners get their hands on the trophy for the first time since 2004.

And I do want to stress - even if City don't get any kind of punishment, I still think Arsenal can do with Liverpool did in 20/21 and break the City cycle.


Magpies to swoop

I promise, I'm not just regurgitating the tips from last season's Premier League outright, but I simply can't leave NEWCASTLE TO FINISH TOP 4 unbacked at 9/4.

Last season Eddie Howe's men were the victim of some rotten luck with injuries, combined with an increased number of games, and it did halt their progress. But they still managed to finish seventh while posting the fourth best underlying numbers in the league.

They averaged 2.22 xGF and 1.64 xGA per game, racking up 1.72 expected points (xP) per game, so while they do have to tighten up a tad at the back and improve results away from home, the process is in place for them to be a real problem for the 'establishment' once again.

The Swede was red-hot last season, finishing behind only Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer having netted 21 goals in a tired Newcastle team that was decimated by injuries and the task of managing midweek football.

That won't be the case this season, with the Magpies taking no part in Europe, and compared to some of his rivals in the betting, Isak's process suggests that his scoring rate is highly likely to be repeatable.

That price, while perhaps skinny to some, is value in my eyes, with Daniel Farke's side simply a class above every other team in this season's Championship.

They were denied promotion last season in the play-off final, and were involved in one of the most thrilling four-way promotion battles the second tier has ever seen. Those other three have been promoted, and the three sides that have come down aren't of the same calibre.

That leaves the door wide open for a dominant Leeds side to romp home. And lets be clear about this, despite finishing third, Farke's men were the best team in the Championship last season according to the majority of key underlying metrics.

Of the newly promoted sides, only Oxford are in the top five in the betting, the bookies quite clearly expecting Derby and Portsmouth to survive, meaning it's a wide open heat with seven sides priced between 3/1 and 11/2.

Wayne Rooney's Plymouth are second favourites, but it's Cardiff who appeal, despite finishing 12th last season.

The cases for Arsenal and Leeds have been made above, but by adding Birmingham we get a 38/1 treble. The Blues, relegated from the Championship last season, have splashed the cash on some impressive players at League One level, their American owners backing new manager Chris Davies to guide them back to the second tier at the first time of asking.

Let's go through the BAB. Arsenal, Leeds and Birmingham have been covered. Huddersfield and Rotherham, both relegated from the Championship last season, have new and proven managers in charge - Michael Duff and Steve Evans - and both look strong heading into the season meaning top six looks within reach.

In League Two, MK Dons are strongly fancied to go better than last season (beaten play-off semi-finalists) under Mike Williamson, while Doncaster have kept hold of manager Grant McCann and so should be able to follow up their storming finish to the campaign.

Finally, Port Vale have brought in some real quality for League Two level, and that, coupled with a good manager in Darren Moore, should see them being relevant in the fourth tier.

It's obviously a highly speculative punt, but it does give us something to cheer on at a big price.


Odds correct at 1900 BST (30/07/24)

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