Football stats: What will playing behind closed doors will do for home advantage

Plans for football to return have been gathering a head of steam, with the Bundesliga set to return; and continued talks within the Premier League discussing a variety of options for them to return to action. Those options include playing behind closed doors or potentially at neutral venues in a bid to save themselves from years of potential litigation that they seemingly fear more than the health risks posed by COVID-19 itself.

It’s looks certain that, if and when football does return in England, it will do so without fans – initially at least. As punters, it’s therefore time for us to have a little think about what that means.

Home Advantage Matters

Let’s start with the basics. We know home advantage matters – you only have to look at the win-rates of matches over the long term. In the Premier League for example, two equal teams facing off would typically leave us expecting the home team to triumph around 45.5% of the time, whereas the away side would win just 30.5%. It’s a predictable pattern repeated season on season.