Jose Mourinho, the unlikely entertainer? Tottenham have veered from roundheads to cavaliers, from impotent to prolific.
Perhaps they have gone from a team destined, at best, for another season in the Europa League to one who can qualify for the Champions League.
It could be called the Bale revival. After only beginning two previous league games this season, the Welshman has started the last three. Spurs have won all, scoring nine.
It may be worth noting that all five of his starts are against bottom-eight teams and that Tottenham only have three more such fixtures remaining.
Yet it marks a sea change in Spurs’ output; perhaps in their approach, too. Tottenham scored four goals each against Burnley and Crystal Palace; they scored four or more in two of their first four, at Southampton and Manchester United, but never in between.
They had had seven shots on target against the Clarets, a number they had only reached once (against Leeds) since the 6-1 thrashing at Old Trafford.
Their expected goals (xG) scores against Burnley (2.28) and Palace (2.33) are two of their three highest since the 6-1; the other, 2.88, came in their 3-0 win against Leeds in January, and that perhaps reflects Marcelo Bielsa’s ethos more than Mourinho’s.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Tottenham’s attack has been hot and cold
And their season can be split into three parts. In their first five matches, culminating in the 3-3 draw with West Ham, they had a total xG of 12.45, an average of 2.49 per game. In the last three matches, it is 6.62, an average of 2.21 per game. But in the 19 in between, their total expected goals was just 21.5, an average of 1.13 every game and just the 13th best in the division in that time.
In contrast, Spurs had racked up the third most xG through the first five matches of the season, when they were top scorers. They have generated more xG than any other side over the last three matches and are top scorers, albeit when some sides have only played two matches in that time.
In Spurs’ duller and lengthier middle period, their 19 matches only produced 41 goals (22 for, 19 against), meaning only Burnley, Fulham and Brighton were involved in fewer goals in what amounts to half of the eventual season.
In contrast, only Liverpool’s first five matches produced more goals. It prompted Mourinho to go on the defensive; not entirely successfully as Tottenham’s next 19 games only yielded 28 points, putting them eighth in a table for that period.
Is Gareth Bale back to his best?
It may feel simplistic to attribute the transformation to Bale; perhaps it is truer to say that his impact is in part because he has reduced the reliance on Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son. But two braces mean he is now Spurs’ third top scorer. He provides a contrast with the man who has occupied the right-wing berth for some of the season.