As ever, the first weekend of the calendar year sees FA Cup action take place and the third round represents the stage where clubs from England's top two divisions join the competition.
This is where we see our winner enter the fold, for as much as the 'Magic of the Cup™️' captures our imagination, and often reminds us of why we love sport so much, there's only so far that can realistically go.
At least the third round will see shocks and a top-flight club or two taken down by those much further down the footballing pyramid. Tricky looking away ties at much smaller grounds have often proven a recipe for disaster for those who had in as the short priced favourites.
Often, it is those who find themselves within the top-four mix who also enjoy success in the FA Cup. That's not always true though, and we've seen numerous Premier League teams reach the semi-finals who may not even sit in the top-half at the time.
Brighton, Crystal Palace, Southampton, Watford and Wolves are all examples of those who - over the past three/four years - have made the final four of the competition despite sitting further down the Premier League table.
When it comes to picking out a winner, recent history has shown that we can hold some confidence in gambling on a team at a bigger price. Each-way terms cover any side making the final - that's what we're largely focusing on in this preview.
Unsurprisingly, Liverpool and Manchester City are the two favourites - with the latter the shorter price - while Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham can all be backed at odds lower than 10/1.
Such is the nature of this competition that I often have little appeal in getting involved in those at the top of the market, although there is some acceptance that they, of course, have the best chance of winning it.
We can't predict what fixtures will arise as the tournament progresses and we could be screwed over with selections if an outsider is paired away at City - but that's the nature of knockout football.
We do know the third round fixtures, and one of those with a favourable tie is ASTON VILLA, making the 33/1 best price on them to WIN THE FA CUP particularly eye-catching.
Unai Emery's appointment should lift a club that needs it after a rather uninspiring spell under Steven Gerrard. He's already seen league wins over Brighton and Manchester United before the break - with a competitive fixture against the latter in the Carabao Cup ending in defeat.
This is a club who have enjoyed this competition in recent years. There was the success of 2021, but they've reached at least the quarter-final stage in three of the last five editions.
A side struggling for form and morale were beaten away at high-flying and seemingly unbeatable Nottingham Forest last season, while the losses in the last-eight came against Chelsea on both occasions.
The upturn in form prior to the Premier League pause has thrown them out of the relegation mix, for now at least, and we can hold confidence that they will stay out of it given the calibre of teams below them.
This could progress into them being in that group with, ultimately, little to play for in terms of the league campaign, and the FA Cup can now take more prominence in their list of priorities than it perhaps would have at this point two months ago.
They may have been beaten by Newcastle on the return but a positive performance against Liverpool can ensure the confidence remains.
A potential tricky tie away at Gillingham awaits - one of those games you slightly worry about as an outright backer - but we can at least take comfort in a recent Carabao Cup performance.
They had a comfortable 3-0 win away at MK Dons, and in truth they will know how much they are expected to deliver as the Premier League side in this contest.
Odds correct at 1840 GMT (03/01/23)
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