Wales' Euro 2020 campaign began with a 1-1 draw with Switzerland on Saturday. It's a good point when we consider the performance and the fact that Danny Ward made a number of good saves to keep them in the game.
Switzerland finished with an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 2.60 from 18 shots - Wales should have really left empty-handed.
Just how sustainable their approach will be in the 'long run' remains the big question. Turkey were well beaten by Italy but we can point to just how good the Italians were rather than Turkey's own issues. They will now know the importance of victory in this game if they are to progress to the next stage.
Turkey's odds-against price justifies good value given the group situation going into matchday two. Switzerland should have had more on their tally on Saturday and the 'home' side here can capitalise on those defensive issues in a victory with goals.
While Turkey were limited in their chances against Italy, some great defending denied them a consolation late on and that's why the 12/5 available on BURAK YILMAZ TO SCORE ANYTIME looks good value here. He was through on goal and had managed to get a shot away but the Italy defender did enough to divert the ball behind.
Turkey's xG figure in that game was 0.52 and 0.43 of that was Yilmaz's shot in the 92nd minute. That was the second-best opportunity of the game as well - only Ciro Immobile's goal had a higher xG figure (0.59).
It carried an xG rating of 0.50, the highest of any shot in the contest, but Fabian Schar and Manuel Akanji also had decent efforts saved. Schar's wonderful backheel (0.18 xG) was pushed away while Akanji also missed an opportunity. Combined, the two centre-backs had three shots totalling 0.36 xG.
Odds correct at 1115 BST (14/06/21)
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