Group E has hardly been a haven of goalscoring thus far in the European Championship, its four matches registering a paltry total of six goals.
That should change in the final round of games with the group’s bottom two – Spain and Poland – needing to beat Slovakia and Sweden respectively to have any chance of progressing.
In fairness, Poland’s games have been responsible for five of the six goals scored in the group – their 2-1 defeat by Slovakia and 1-1 draw with Spain.
Sweden's four-point tally means they are almost certainly through but in what position? A win in St Petersburg would secure top spot and a potentially much easier last-16 game against a third-placed side than if they finished second or third.
The bookies make the Poles slight favourites but let’s be honest, these countries are ridiculously evenly matched and there can be no degree of certainty over any of the three outright outcomes.
Both sides unsurprisingly lost the expected goals (xG) battle against Spain ( and ) but each claimed a point. They both won the xG war against Slovakia ( and ), yet while the Swedes triumphed 1-0, the 10-man Poles lost 2-1.
Robert Lewandowski and co have to attack, and while Sweden’s sterling defensive efforts thus far make the score and scorer markets a gamble, it would be a surprise if Poland did not force several flag-kicks.
Indeed, 7+ Poland corners is 5/2, 8+ is 9/2 and 9+ 17/2 if you fancy a punt at larger prices – if this game stays level for a long period, as both Sweden’s matches have so far, those look good too.
Score prediction: Sweden 1-1 Poland
Odds correct 2045 BST (21/06/21)
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