This is an incredibly difficult match to predict. Russia were extremely poor in their opener against Belgium, while it is tough to glean much from Finland’s 1-0 win over Denmark considering the circumstances.
That win for the Finns puts them in a very good position in terms of actually qualifying for the knockout stages, particularly with the four best third-placed teams making it out of the group stage, and it makes this game all the more important for a Russia side who prop up Group B after the opening round of fixtures.
It is easy to get carried away with how disappointing Russia were against Belgium, but it must be remembered that they were playing one of the best teams in the world, the best if you put any stock in the FIFA rankings, so any rush to take the Russians on would probably be best avoided.
Russia struggled to create anything of note against Belgium, with the Expected Goals total for the game reading , but again, they were playing Belgium, and that performance was not really in keeping with the performances they have been producing over the last year or so.
Stanislav Cherchesov’s side scored 33 goals in qualifying, a tally only Italy, England and Belgium bettered, while in the Nations League, Russia averaged 1.5 goals per game.
Given the need for Russia to come away with all three points, as well as the fact that they have home field advantage, the game being played in Saint Petersburg, they will have no choice but to take the game to Finland.
Russia scored in every single match in qualifying, including twice against Belgium, so it would be a major shock if they did not find the net against this Finland team. The question then is, can Finland reply?
Both Teams to Score landed in five of the first ten matches at this tournament, which is relatively high given what is at stake, so a big price of 16/11 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE in this game makes plenty of appeal, though the 7/5 available with a couple of firms also appears to be value.
There is another bet that catches the eye in this fixture though, and if you are not averse to backing odds-on shots, then delving into the card markets is highly recommended.
The line for bookings in this match is 3.5, with unders heavily fancied at around 4/7, meaning the bookmakers are forecasting three or fewer cards in this match.
Sky Bet do not offer betting on amount of cards but offer betting on booking points, and their price of 8/11 about UNDER 40 BOOKING POINTS is too big in comparison with the rest of the market.
Consider as well that only one match in this tournament (at the time of writing) has seen more than three cards in one match, while only two matches so far have actually gone over 40 booking points.
There were no cards dished out in Russia’s opening match against Belgium, while Finland’s game against Denmark saw just two yellows. It may be odds-on, but it is a good bet.
Odds correct at 1000 BST (14/06/21)
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