2018 World Cup finalists Croatia and the new-look Spain face off in Copenhagen off the back of important wins, each making the last 16 as a consequence.
Although this might seem one of the closer match-ups in the first knockout round, the underlying numbers posted by Croatia and Spain in this tournament suggest this might be more one-sided than at first glance.
Croatia enter the round of 16 on the back of a 3-1 win over Scotland that was inspired by Luka Modric magic, qualifying for this stage by finishing second in Group D.
Ingenuity from an aging core has been their saving grace in Euro 2020, with Ivan Perisic and Modric scoring spectacular - and crucial - goals in big moments. Otherwise, Croatia have been underwhelming.
A narrow defeat to England followed by a 1-1 draw with Czech Republic and a comfortable looking victory could sway you into thinking Croatia are still a team to feared, but expected goals (xG) data offers better insight into how good Croatia actually are.
Spain are allowing opponents a high average of 0.22 xG per shot, so they may concede a big chance, but I think they have more than enough class to win with a handicap even if Croatia nick a goal in Copenhagen.
Croatia have have hardly pulled up trees from an attacking standpoint, though, averaging 0.88 expected goals for (xGF) per game across their three matches. They shouldn't trouble a Spain side that are in much better form than people think.
Score prediction: Croatia 1-3 Spain ()
Odds correct 1400 BST (25/06/2021)
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