Arguably the standout tie of the round of 16, with the world’s number one ranked side taking on the reigning European champions.
For what is a cracking clash, it is somewhat disappointing that its being played in Seville, the venue with arguably the worst pitch at the Euros and the location with the most extreme heat.
Roberto Martinez’s side made light work of Group B, dismantling Russia and Finland with consummate ease either side of a hard-fought win in Copenhagen against Denmark.
They qualified without their star players being mainstays, as Axel Witsel, Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne were all recovering from injuries.
The trio played the full 90 in the final group game, suggesting they are back to full fitness, which spells trouble for Portugal.
De Bruyne and Hazard couldn’t ask for a better front man to play behind, with Romelu Lukaku having a sensational tournament for Belgium.
The Inter man has netted three times at Euro 2020 so far, averaging 0.50 xG per 95 minutes, and is the obvious danger man for the Red Devils. Pepe and Ruben Dias, beware.
The Cristiano Ronaldo-led defending champions scraped through the ‘group of death’ in third place, with their only win coming against Hungary in the group opener.
Against the better sides, Fernando Santos’s Seleção have struggled defensively, conceding six times when facing France and Germany.
They allowed 2.32 xGA in Munich against the 2014 world champions, before conceding chances equating to 1.81 xGA against the reigning world champions in the final group game.
With the likes of Nélson Semedo and Raphaël Guerreiro playing at full back – two attack minded players – and an ancient Pepe partnering Ruben Dias, the Portuguese defence isn’t as mean as it has been in past tournaments.
This game could become a shoot-out between two average defences, but even that wouldn’t suit Portugal.
While they scored seven times through three group games, three of those goals were penalties. It is unlikely that they will continue to be awarded penalties at that rate throughout the tournament, and their non-penalty xGF per game of 1.40 is underwhelming.
It is worth mentioning heading into this game that Cristiano Ronaldo is just one goal away from breaking the all time record for most international goals - he has an implied 44% chance of doing so in Seville according to the bookmakers.
Factor in that the Belgians head to Seville having had two days extra rest and a less taxing and draining group, and the 6/4 about a BELGIUM WIN IN 90 MINUTES does start to appeal even more.
Score prediction: Belgium 2-1 Portugal ()
Odds correct 1200 BST (25/06/21)
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