With the Euro 2020 group stage complete, Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo finds himself as the odds-on favourite to secure the Golden Boot with five goals from three games - it's a return that highlights the importance of penalty takers in this market.
Three of those came from the spot and it's fired him ahead in the race. Recent years have shown that five may be enough to win the award but the make-up of the round of 16 fixtures ensures the market remains fairly open.
Portugal taking on Belgium means that we will lose one of Ronaldo or Romelu Lukaku for the quarter-finals. If Ronaldo fails to score in that game, five will be the marker and could be caught - you won't find Lukaku at odds of 6/1 as he is currently if he scores in a Belgium victory.
However, a number of the 'big-hitters' find themselves on the tougher side of the bracket which means goals may be tougher to come by. Only one of Belgium, Italy, France, Portugal or Spain can reach the final given how the draw has worked out.
On the other side, the Netherlands will fancy their chances of going far while England and Germany know they have a great opportunity if they can get the better of the other in their round of 16 tie at Wembley.
What the draw does mean is that there is serious value on offer by targeting the 'weaker' side of the bracket. Four of the current six favourites in the market are on the other side of the draw but the tough nature of the fixtures makes you question some of the prices available.
The one team that does stand out is the Netherlands because of their potential path to the final. They face Czech Republic in the round of 16 with the Infogol model giving them a 78% chance of progressing - that is the highest figure of any team involved in the knockouts.
After that, they will take on the winner of Denmark or Wales so they have two really good opportunities for goals which opens up big value in the Golden Boot market. Only Spain (9.7) posted a higher figure than Frank de Boer's side (9.0) in the Expected Goals numbers during the group stages. It's not a surprise to see that they are the tournament's highest scorers with eight so far.
While we weren't used to seeing him as a prolific scorer for Liverpool - although that could change after he made the switch to PSG - Wijnaldum averages a goal every 228 minutes for his country. He netted an incredible eight in qualifying, alongside three in two Nations League games in November and one in World Cup qualifying.
There is every chance he could win the accolade himself if Ronaldo and Portugal exit at the round of 16 stage. The first two games of the knockouts will be key but he has every chance of delivering - the Czech Republic may have only conceded twice but the xGA figure of 4.5 shows that it should have been more.
Staying with the Netherlands and the biggest play of the tournament so far in backing DENZEL DUMFRIES for Golden Boot glory at incredible odds of 200/1 - that includes the places going up to three.
It's an incredible position to be in where we are giving serious consideration to a right-back for this award but it's simply too good to ignore given what we have seen from him in the group stage.
The best price of 200/1 for this selection is simply too good to ignore and anything in the three-figures region is fine. When we consider his current rate and the potential fixtures coming up for the Netherlands, it's a struggle to find a better value play in any other market for the remainder of the tournament.
It's also worth noting that at 200/1, Dumfries is priced up the same as Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Olivier Giroud and Joao Felix - three players who are struggling for game time let alone finding the net.
The pre-tournament selection of Lukaku at odds of 15/2 still looks good if Belgium can progress beyond the round of 16. A goal in that game will surely deliver an each-way return at the very least and we could be in a decent position with him battling the Netherlands strike force for top spot.
Cristiano Ronaldo is odds-on at this stage but there's still a number of games to be played - that price will be under serious threat if Portugal crash out at the first knockout hurdle. Instead, with the current situation and value on offer, it's worth looking to the Netherlands to deliver and backing DUMFRIES and WIJNALDUM to be among the goals.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (24/06/21)
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