.

Incredibly, Haaland has been on the end of 12 non-penalty big chances in seven games - the same as the entire Arsenal team.

There is still a long way to go in the season, with the added caveat of a mid-season World Cup, but Haaland must have the scoring record in his mind as a seriously achievable target.

But just how achievable is it? Well, with some mathsy stuff, we can make a decent educated guess.

I did the same thing last season around Aleksandr Mitrovic's incredible season and the calculations proved to be pretty accurate - granted we had a much larger sample size to extrapolate from.

Using the same calculations, it was predicted that the Serb would most likely finish on 42 goals - he netted 43.

So, let's see how we do with Haaland, though I will again emphasise the smaller sample size with which we are working with at this stage.

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How do we calculate how many goals a player can be EXPECTED to score?

Without a crystal ball, it is impossible to accurately predict how many goals Haaland will score from now until the end of the season. However, we can make a solid estimation based on the data.

First of all, we need to work out how many goals Manchester City are expected to score in their remaining 31 games of the season.

Infogol has team ratings for each club in all of the competitions it covers, and with those team ratings we can calculate a probability of each team winning each future game, as well as how many goals a team is likely to score and concede in each of those matches.

Using this method, we calculate that across their remaining Premier League games, City are expected to score 76.9 goals.

Next, we need to look at what percentage share of those future goals will likely be scored by Haaland.

To do this, we will use Man City's xGF per game total from their first seven games and Haaland's xG/95 tally to get a percentage share.

Pep Guardiola's side have racked up a through the opening stretches of the season, with their number nine Haaland (1.19 xG/95) getting on the end of roughly 49% of City's xG on a game-by-game basis.

Now we have that percentage, we can calculate the most likely number of goals Haaland is expected to score for the remainder of the season, by taking the number of goals City are expected to score (76.9) and multiplying it by our percentage in decimal form (0.49) to get 37.7.

How many goals will Haaland score?

So, the most likely number of goals the Norwegian will score over the remainder of the season is roughly 38. That would take his season tally to an insane 49 goals.

However, as said before, we don't have mystical powers that allow us to look into the future, so we can't say "Haaland will score 38 goals in the City's remaining 31 games".

Instead, we need to look at the different number of goals he can possibly score, along with the percentage chance of him scoring each number of goals - this being done via a Poisson distribution.

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  • 8/11 - Haaland to score 33+ goals
  • 11/8 - Haaland to score 35+ goals
  • 4/1 - Haaland to score 38+ goals
  • 7/1 - Haaland to score 40+ goals
  • 50/1 - Haaland to score 45+ goals

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It seems ridiculous to think a player could score 35+ in the Premier League, but it could well happen this term.

The key will be fitness, as City are so superior to nearly every team in the league that Pep's side will be expected to score at least two or three goals in every game this term.

Fortunately for Haaland, and another strong reason why he could do the previously unthinkable and break the record, Norway aren't at the World Cup, which means he will have a full month to rest and recuperate while others are playing in the football's biggest tournament.

It sounds ridiculous, but the 50/1 about him netting 45+ could prove a huge price if things continue in the same manner.

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