Even now, still 14 months away, we can select some absolute surefire picks (barring injuries).
Jordan Pickford, Harry Maguire, John Stones, Luke Shaw, Declan Rice, Kalvin Phillips, Jack Grealish, Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane are surely on the plane already, and maybe a handful of others.
But history tells us there will be some players - a Ben White, a Bukayo Saka - between now and then that creep into contention and snag a spot fairly late on.
This is a five-horse race to whittle down to three – well, two, actually as Pickford is a certainty. As such, I’m intrigued by the 11/10 on offer about AARON RAMSDALE to make the cut.
Arsenal splashed out £30m to bring the Sheffield United stopper to The Emirates and he has already usurped Bernd Leno as the Gunners’ starter between the sticks.
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
Ramsdale was called up to England’s Euro 2020 squad after an injury to Nick Pope and was selected ahead of the Burnley keeper for this week’s qualifiers, Southgate citing Ramsdale’s “better form”.
His performances, in a brief space of time admittedly, for Arsenal have been impressive and while he has suffered back-to-back relegations from the top flight, Ramsdale has shone despite both Bournemouth and Sheffield United going down.
He looks better placed for a run as Pickford’s deputy than either Dean Henderson, a massively unbackable 1/5 to make the squad, or Sam Johnstone, who is priced at 9/4.
There are eight defenders odds-on to make the squad and seven are either too short to back or come with question marks.
Stones and Maguire (1/20) are cast-iron, as is Shaw (1/12). Kyle Walker is getting on a bit now at 31 and has so much competition at right-back he could be the worst 1/8 shot ever. Odds are he will make it, but I’d want a better price than that.
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
Trent Alexander-Arnold – seemingly back in Southgate’s good graces – is a better 1/3 shout than Ben White, but the big thing that jumps out at me in the price disparity between two Chelsea defenders who both made the Euros cut.
Look, I get it. We haven’t got many left-backs and we’ve got an absolute abundance of right-backs. But Ben Chilwell is 1/16 to make the squad and REECE JAMES is 8/13 – and that just isn’t right surely.
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
Of those outside the immediate favourites, Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe catches the eye at 7/2 given his profile – if he has a big season for the Gunners, he’s one who could break through.
The best price, for me, though, is on a man firmly entrenched in Gareth Southgate’s thoughts already after the way he resurrected his career last season – JESSE LINGARD, at 9/4.
Once we get past the absolute guaranteed selections of Kane and Sterling, it’s interesting to note the next three players up are all Manchester United men.
Will Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Mason Greenwood attain enough game time – and form – to justify their odds-on prices? Time will tell but at 1/12, 1/10 and 1/2 all look too short to back.
Odds correct at 0930 (04/10/21)
I prefer to look elsewhere and with a Kane back-up needed, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is perhaps a surprisingly large 10/11 to fill that role, as he did at the Euros.
Of regular Premier League starters, only Cristiano Ronaldo has a better xG/95 minutes figure than Calvert-Lewin so far this term and the Everton man has been consistently delivering the goods for some time now.
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