We’re used to lots of firsts in this ‘new normal’ world we’ve lived in this past year – and there’s another in store at Wembley Stadium this Saturday and Sunday.
For the first time ever, two Football League Trophy finals will be played on the same weekend as the Covid-delayed 2020 final between Portsmouth and Salford is followed by the 2021 showpiece in which Sunderland face Tranmere.
Since Johnson took over, Sunderland have been fast starters, scoring 16 goals inside the opening half-hour in his 23 games in charge, leading at the 30-minute mark in 10 of those 23.
Sunderland have kept five clean sheets in their past six league games and boast the third tier’s best defence so a Black Cats win to nil holds some appeal at 21/10 with Sky Bet.
But I just have a feeling Tranmere will make a real game of this and with Vaughan missing, there is certainly value to be found in the Wirral outfit’s goalscoring markets.
The man I’m pinning my mast to is midfielder Paul Lewis who has netted six goals this season including two in his past four games as well as having another disallowed for offside.
He is 18/1 to score first in some places but you can get almost half those odds on PAUL LEWIS TO SCORE ANYTIME with Paddy Power and Betfair at 8/1 - a great price on a man very much in the groove.
Finally, as a bit of cup final fun, throw your spare change at Rovers centre-half GEORGE RAY TO SCORE FIRST at a whopping 100/1.
Ray netted last time out at Southend and has recently come back into favour after spending much of the season out of the side. His central defensive partner Peter Clarke is 28/1 tops so 100s is excessive on Ray – and we can take the 1/3 odds each-way terms on offer with Paddy Power and Betfair's first five places so it's just over 33s anytime.
Score prediction: Sunderland 3-2 Tranmere
Odds correct at 1240 GMT on 12/03/21
Either way, given their form, Portsmouth would seem ripe for an upset but Salford have hardly been pulling up trees either, a run of one win in six games seeing them slip out of the League Two play-off places.
The Ammies, however, do boast the fourth tier’s stingiest defence, conceding a league-low 27 in 33 games – and with Pompey struggling for goals, just five in their past seven matches, the stage is surely set for a low-scoring affair.
Six of Salford’s past seven games have seen two goals or fewer, as have four of Pompey’s past six, and with the occasion of a Wembley final likely to lead to caution from both sides, UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks a clever play at what seems an overpriced 4/5 generally.
So tight do I expect this one to be that there’s every chance it could go all the way to penalties, just like Portsmouth’s 2019 Trophy triumph over Sunderland.
I like the price of 11/2 available generally on EITHER SIDE TO WIN ON PENALTIES – it feels like the sort of game that could be decided from 12 yards: a solid Salford side against a Pompey outfit scared of a shock.
The Ammies won the National League play-off final at Wembley two years ago and have a number of experienced heads so they won’t be overawed by the occasion – back them to make a game of this by taking Portsmouth to penalties in a tight one.
Score prediction: Portsmouth 0-0 Salford
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