England were beaten by Italy in the Euro 2020 final
England were beaten by Italy in the Euro 2020 final

Did England deserve to win Euro 2020? xG analysis of all seven games


England reached a first final since 1966, but football, after a 55-year wait, did not quite come home as they lost to Italy in a penalty shootout in the Euro 2020 final.

We look back on their journey to the final, and subsequent defeat by the Azzurri, highlighting a key data point from each match.


England 1-0 Croatia: Defence shows it’s strength

Raheem Sterling’s goal separated England and 2018 World Cup finalists Croatia in the Three Lions’ Euro 2020 opener, but it was the way in which Gareth Southgate’s side controlled the game that caught the eye.

They didn’t play gung-ho attacking football, and only took eight shots in the match, but they created the two best chances of the game (Sterling 51%, Kane 60%), with the England defensive shape most impressive.

Southgate opted for a 4-2-3-1 system that limited Croatia to just 0.54 xG. For perspective, that same Croatia team went on to rack up nearly 4.0 xG against semi-finalists Spain, so England stifled a team very capable of causing plenty of issues.


England 0-0 Scotland: Three Lions deserved to win

An emotion-fuelled match against the Auld Enemy was next up but it was a game that fizzled out after half-time. However, the reaction to England’s performance was overblown.

While the narrative was that Scotland were the better team, the xG figures told a completely different story, with it being England who created the better chances ().

Southgate’s men allowed no ‘big chances’ (0.35 xG+) while creating three of their own, with the Infogol model calculating that, based on the quality of chances created in the game, England would win the game 59% of the time.

The overreaction was unnecessary, as it was another solid performance, but one in which England were unfortunate not to win.

England 2-1 Denmark (AET): Strong performance

England bucked the trend of being outshot at the tournament by registering 21 shots across the 120 minutes and an xG of 3.23. Perhaps crucially, this didn't open them up defensively with Denmark limited to just 0.30 xG.

Mikkel Damsgaard's wonder free-kick was the only real chance of note - and that being because it found the back of the net - but a strong end to the 90 minutes could have easily seen England win the game in normal time.

The xG scoreline after 90 minutes was 1.39 to 0.27 in England's favour but they couldn't find a way past an organised Danish defence with a strong performance from Kasper Schmeichel in goal.

Set-pieces were key in the win over Ukraine and England could have scored from another against Denmark. Harry Maguire had three shots - two of which were on target - while John Stones also had two efforts towards goal.


Italy 1-1 England (3-2 pens): No complaints about the outcome

England have been on the right side of the Expected Goals (xG) battle throughout the tournament, but the final saw Italy enjoy the better of the chances and they deserved to secure victory in 120 minutes.

The Three Lions' three missed penalties - two of which were comfortable saves for Gianluigi Donnarumma - eventually secured the trophy for Italy but it shouldn't have even reached that point.

Italy's 2.69 xG was met by England's 0.75. We could point to the quality of opponent but Southgate playing a back-three led to their two highest xGA tallies of the tournament - the other being 1.33 against Germany in the round of 16.

Bonucci (0.64 xG) couldn't miss from close range but it could have been more. Domenico Berardi (0.55 xG) hit an effort over in the 73rd minute while Lorenzo Insigne missed two 0.13 xG chances in the second-half.

Shaw's effort (0.42 xG) was England's only real effort of the contest - Jack Grealish's 108th minute strike (0.12 xG) being their next best.

Ultimately, while it went down to spot kicks, the trophy could have easily been Italy's at the conclusion of normal time.


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