Is there a manager who needs to win more this weekend than sack race leader Frank Lampard?
A limp 2-0 defeat at Leicester in midweek continued Chelsea’s dismal run of form - they have won just twice in eight Premier League games - and further increased the pressure on the club legend.
Strange isn't it, that for the majority of Lampard's maiden campaign, the Blues were well-placed to finish in the top four, ultimately doing so, despite being hamstrung by a transfer embargo? More than £200m worth of attacking recruitment later and they look lost; Luton will fancy their chances.
Nathan Jones' side are enjoying a good season in the Sky Bet Championship. After narrowly avoiding relegation last term, they now sit comfortably in 13th.
Their success has been built on resilience. It's common for the Hatters to be involved in tight-ish games, with only three games this season being settled by greater than a two-goal margin, while six of their past 10 matches have seen under 1.5 goals.
Our closest comparison to this fixture from a Luton perspective is their Carabao Cup home tie with Manchester United earlier this term, where a 3-0 away win really didn't tell the whole story - United scored twice in the final two minutes.
But Chelsea have had a similar match-up this season too, as they thumped Barnsley 6-0 at Stamford Bridge in the same competition.
A much-changed XI made light work of Morecambe in round three by sweeping the Sky Bet League Two club aside 4-0, and while Luton will provide a much sterner test, I don't see Lampard's men slipping up at Sunday lunchtime.
Chelsea have failed to score more than once in eight of their last 10 fixtures. Luton have scored five and conceded seven in their past eight - this surely cannot be a goal-fest, can it?
The 15/8 across the board on under 2.5 goals is tempting, but I prefer to combine that angle with a home win. Chelsea/under 3.5 goals is 5/4 with BoyleSports and 3/1 (general) if you knock a goal off. I really like the value in both of those.
Odds correct at 2300 GMT (21/01/21)
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