Sandwiched in between their two-legged Champions League semi-final with Real Madrid, Chelsea have the small matter of a west London derby against Fulham.
Both have plenty to play for in this game, with the Blues looking to secure a top-four finish and the Cottagers fighting for survival, so we should get a tasty encounter.
The Thomas Tuchel train left the station a few months ago, and it is proving very difficult to stop.
In a congested 10 days, Chelsea played Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final on Saturday, Brighton in the league on Tuesday, West Ham on Saturday and Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final on Tuesday. They lost none of them, conceding just one goal.
This highlights the solid nature of this Chelsea team, but also the quality in squad depth that they possess, being able to rotate from game to game without losing anything on the pitch.
Rotation will likely occur again here as they prepare for the second leg of their UCL tie, but the players that are being brought in don’t weaken the side, especially defensively.
Since Tuchel’s arrival, across 19 games in the Premier League and Champions League, the Blues have allowed just 0.64 expected goals against (xGA) per game, conceding more than 1.0 xGA in just two of those matches.
They have kept 13 clean sheets since his appointment, which is incredible, and it has made up for the lack of dominance and cohesiveness in attack, with the Blues scoring just 32 times and averaging 1.68 xGF per game.
Scott Parker’s side had all the pundits saying that they were unlucky not to beat Arsenal in their last outing nearly two weeks ago, but that performance was shocking.
They were dominated by an average Arsenal team, mustering just 0.11 non-pen xGF (expected goals for, not counting penalty kicks) while allowing 2.92 xGA, so they were hugely fortunate to come away with anything at all.
That kind of media love-in has occurred nearly all season long, and I’ve never quite been able to put my finger on why.
Given the squad at Parker’s disposal, Fulham should be clear of the drop zone, and while they did have a promising run of performances, that is now a distant memory, with the Cottagers winless in five and now seven points from safety.
Seven of Chelsea’s eight Premier League wins under Tuchel have seen this bet come in, as have all three of their victories in the Champions League. All in all, this bet has landed in 13 of Tuchel’s 22 games in charge across all competitions, and the price is too good to turn down for it to happen again here.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Fulham ()
Odds correct at 1540 BST (28/04/21)
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