The Sky Bet Championship has shed it's reputation as one of the most unpredictable leagues in the world over the last few seasons.
The hangover from COVID is to blame. Loss of revenue made it harder for regulars to compete with the financial clout of the recently relegated sides.
Of the last nine sides to drop down from the top flight, four bounced back at the first time of asking and all bar one of them were promoted after a second bite of the cherry.
While the gulf between the top flight and second division is broadening, the chasm between the second and third tiers looks to be shortening.
After four seasons in Sky Bet League One, Sunderland utilised the momentum from their play-off promotion to catapult them to a top six finish. Rotherham also beat the drop meaning two thirds of the promoted sides over the past two seasons avoided an instant return to League One.
That said, if you slip through the trapdoor, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make a speedy return.
Peterborough, Derby and Barnsley failed to bounce back immediately last campaign. Hull and Rotherham are the only two to do so since 2020, Wigan did in their second season and Sheffield Wednesday also did at the second time of asking. The trend suggests it is a slippery slope.
What of the rest? Last season, the points gap between 7th and 21st was the joint-tightest it has been in a decade. Only 20 points separated Blackburn, who missed out on the playoffs via goal difference, and Cardiff, who finished one place above the drop.
Essentially, it is becoming harder to escape the division, easier to become an established side but harder to find a way back if relegated.
So, it should be a doddle predicting what is going to happen this campaign, right?
Odds correct as of 1100 (21/07/23)
This is a market rife with value so I’ll waste no time beating around the bush.
MIDDLESBROUGH are 5/4 to FINISH IN THE TOP SIX.
Their last campaign can be broken down into two categories: Chris Wilder’s reign and Michael Carrick’s. Polar opposites in many ways.
Wilder was reaching the end of his steep trajectory through the football league and he knew it.
Tactically, with the majority of the country playing his revolutionary 3-5-2 formation, he had lost his edge and Boro’s performances were stale.
He did not quite last a year on Teesside and could only muster 10 points in 11 games last campaign, leaving Boro in the relegation zone.
After originally spurning their advances, Carrick took the reins at the end of October.
There are a few things to consider of course, the form of Tom Bradshaw being one.
Domestically, Millwall’s frontman bagged 17 times last campaign, dwarfing his best tally at this level, which accounted for approximately 30% of his side's goals. Bradshaw had not hit double figures in any of his previous six Championship seasons.
Zian Flemming became a talismanic figure from midfield, with 15 goals and three assists. The Dutchman is attracting interest from Burnley and Lazio and if he is tempted away, Millwall could lose their spark.
But, history suggests Rowett can be trusted to replace and maintain stability, and should have the Lions roaring at the right end of the table once again.
We can back them at 4/1 generally, but there is 11/2 available in a few spots with some smaller firms if you have accounts.
Their promotion campaign was a rollercoaster. A tally of 96 points would have been enough to see the Owls go up as champions in six of the previous seven completed Sky Bet League One seasons but was only enough to secure a spot in the play-offs.
Peterborough had no time for this sentiment and stuffed them 4-0 in the first leg. Wednesday’s record-breaking turnaround at Hillsborough reached all corners of the globe, Pep Guardiola even acknowledging the feat. The Owls then went one better in the final, beating local rivals Barnsley to clinch promotion in the 123rd minute, deep in extra time.
Securing a return to the second tier in the most dramatic of fashion should have stood the Owls in good stead this season, galvanising the club and patching up the rift between fans and chairman. A summer of turmoil has followed though.
Dejphon Chansiri has once again left the club in a precarious position. Unreasonable wage demands forced Darren Moore’s untimely end and poor management of player contracts has led to a mass exodus.
Xisco Munoz has stepped into the dugout, Chansiri’s 11th different managerial appointment ahead of his ninth season in charge of the club.
With such turbulence behind the scenes, and a squad currently lacking any depth, it is difficult to see how Sheffield Wednesday will launch a successful survival bid.
Jamie Vardy leads the market in the top goalscorer department. The veteran striker, England international and wind-up merchant returns to the Championship after a decade with 136 top flight goals under his belt. I have my reservations about his market-leading price though.
It is early days in Enzo Maresca’s tenure but his style seems to lack penetration, which is why Patson Daka and Kelechi Iheanacho's prices of 9/1 apiece are also getting snubbed.
Odds correct at 1100 (21/07/23)
ELLIS SIMMS TO BE TOP GOALSCORER is the first pick.
Coventry signed the frontman for £8m from Everton, which looks like a snip to me.
Simms scored seven times on loan at Sunderland last season from an xG of 4.9, generating a, underpinning his clinical nature and consistency. The Black Cats' autumnal dip in form coincided with his and strike partner Ross Stewart's injuries. Simms has also bagged north of the border, scoring seven in 21 appearances for Hearts.
Filling the void left by a certain Swede could burden the youngster but if he can cope with that psychological pressure, there is a lot to get excited about.
Victor Gyokeres’ 21 goals was the second highest tally in the division last season but those goals equated to 36% of the Sky Blues' 58 goals. Gus Hamer was the side's second-highest scorer with 11.
Mark Robins gears up his side to create chances for their spearhead and Simms has already proved he can put them away. So, barring injury, he should get a hatful next campaign.
The 40/1 about CONOR CHAPLIN TO BE TOP GOALSCORER also looks huge.
He is certainly a player that divides bookmakers' opinion; Ipswich’s frontman is as short at 20/1 elsewhere.
The Tractor Boys could not break the 100 points barrier in League One but did bag over a century of goals, becoming only the third team to manage that feat since the divisional rebrand.
Chaplin was responsible for 26% of those strikes and shared the Golden Boot with Jonson Clarke-Harris, both scoring 26 goals a piece.
Kieran McKenna’s side are touted for a successful return to the division, with a 69.2% probability of finishing in the top half and a 40% probability of sneaking into the play-offs.
The acquisition of Jack Taylor from Posh, League One’s standout player, should ensure Chaplin plays as a second striker, only sweetening the bet.
Odds correct at 1900 (16/07/22)
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