Barcelona v PSG

• 1st leg - Tuesday February 16
• 2nd leg - Wednesday March 10

The market has moved drastically on this one on the back of Barcelona’s positive recent form, and the news of Neymar’s injury that rules him out of the first leg.

All Ronald Koeman’s side needed to do to win Group G was to avoid a loss by a three-goal margin in their final match, but they were defeated 3-0 by Juventus, meaning the Catalan giants play PSG instead of Porto in the last 16.

Their domestic form has drastically improved since the group stages finished, but they remain a vulnerable defensive team, even at home (1.47 xGA per game at Camp Nou in La Liga).

At the time of writing, we just witnessed Sevilla beat them comprehensively in the Copa del Rey, showing they are still very much a work in progress.

PSG have seen a whole lot of change since topping their group in the UCL, with Thomas Tuchel – the man who guided them to their first Champions League Final since the 2011 takeover – dismissed and replaced by Mauricio Pochettino.

Unfamiliar to Les Parisiens is a title race in France, but that is exactly what they are in the middle of, meaning they can’t just coast domestically and get ready for European matches, as has generally been the case.

They have an extremely talented squad, and even without Neymar, have enough attacking talent to really hurt Barcelona over two legs. PSG, too, are still a work in progress under Pochettino, meaning I can understand why the market can’t split these two in the betting.

This is one of the closest ties according to the market, but the Infogol model makes PSG strong favourites in this tie, pricing the French champions closer to 4/6.

Let’s not forget how badly Barca were embarrassed by one of Europe’s elite in last season’s competition, and this season, they have lost three and drawn one of their four meetings with Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla – three of Europe’s elite.

PSG are a strong value play at Evens, and I think they will have enough to progress over two legs past Lionel Messi and co.

RB Leipzig v Liverpool

• 1st leg - Tuesday February 16
• 2nd leg - Wednesday March 10

RB Leipzig qualified ahead of Liverpool’s arch rivals Manchester United in Group H of the Champions League, though based on expected goals, they were fortunate to finish above the Red Devils.

Nonetheless, last year’s semi-finalists have improved greatly since the group stage closed, comfortably sitting second in the Bundesliga while boasting the third-best defensive process from across Europe’s top five leagues (0.88 xGA per game).

Liverpool haven’t been at full strength at all this season, missing key players throughout, though that didn’t stop them topping Group D, though performances didn’t exactly back up their success.

They finished the group stage with an expected goal difference (xGD) of +0.1, which was tied second with Ajax, far inferior to Atalanta’s +3.6.

The Reds conceded just three goals from chances equating to 9.4 xGA, with their goal living a charmed life, and defensively they have remained as vulnerable domestically.

Jurgen Klopp’s side are a potentially a team to oppose here, and that certainly would have been put up as a bet had the first leg of the tie remained in Germany.

Instead, RB Leipzig must play their ‘home leg’ in Budapest, negating the albeit-diminishing home field advantage they would usually have. The model makes the Germans price closer to 11/5 to qualify, so do represent value, but there are better bets to be had in this market.