I actually think is a massive price given Barnsley’s consistency for low-scoring matches – it’s happened in five of their past six matches, and seven of their past 11.
The heavily congested fixture list does make a raft of changes on both sides a strong possibility, but a lack of fluidity in attack is just as likely a consequence as defensive errors.
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If you're looking for a bigger price, and some evidence for it then it could be some small stakes on While the Hammers will of course make some changes, it's least likely to happen in central defence.
They were poor against Newcastle, but did hit the crossbar twice through both Pablo Fornals and centre-back Ogbonna. With Moyes' unashamed School of Science reputation, and dedication to set-piece work, the Italian defender could go one better against League One opponents.
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Despite Villa’s struggles in front of goal at the back end of last season – they managed only seven in 10 Project Restart matches – I really do fancy them to wipe the floor with Burton, so I am tempted by Aston Villa -2 at 10/3 on the goal handicap. But Villa could well get the game in the bag and back off with more important tasks ahead.
Instead, having kept another clean sheet, albeit in a friendly against a Man United team missing lots of first-teamers, to build on the improved defensive displays that ultimately kept them in the top flight, that’s the place to go.
They conceded only twice in their final four games, and kept their opponents to under 1.5 goals in all but three of their 10 post-lockdown fixtures – and those who managed it were Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United.
I'm backing them to shut Burton out too.
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