Well, who saw Alisson banging in a 95th minute header at the weekend coming? West Brom certainly didn’t, but what header. It was a goal that kept Liverpool’s top-four hopes well and truly alive, and very nearly in their own hands.
Two wins from their last two games for Jurgen Klopp’s side would move them onto 69 points, that will more than likely be enough, though a crazy goal swing could occur and leave them fifth. Unlikely though.
They travel to Burnley on Wednesday, but are extremely short at 1/5 to get the three points at Turf Moor against a team that beat them at Anfield earlier in the season.
For perspective, they were a similarly short price at the weekend against West Brom and needed a last minute winner from their GOALKEEPER, and against Newcastle a few weeks back they were again criminally short, and game they drew 1-1.
It is the time of year where NEED FOR A WIN is baked into prices, and it is probably that coupled with the ‘they’ve nothing to play for’ surrounding Burnley that has this price so short.
Last season at Turf Moor, the Reds were around the 1/2 mark with fans in the stadium and Liverpool performing at elite levels week in and week out. The 1/5 available on Wednesday represents zero value, and does make me want to take advantage of all the big prices available surrounding Burnley.
A lot has been made of Burnley’s home results after their 4-0 loss to Leeds at the weekend, with that being their ninth home game without a win, but the performances they have put in have deserved plenty of points.
A few more variables that could play into this are the shorter rest period Liverpool have had, a thin squad for the most part, and the emotion expended after the win over West Brom. Burnley’s price simply looks too big.
As well as siding with Burnley to get a result, there could be value in the shots market, too.
BURNLEY 10+ SHOTS is priced up at 9/5 on Betfair, but the lines elsewhere start at 11+ at even money. That is our in.
The Clarets have been getting into more shooting positions regularly of late, and pulling the trigger. Sean Dyche’s side took 16 shots against Leeds at the weekend, 14 at Fulham, 14 at Wolves, 24 against Newcastle, 14 at Everton; you get the idea.
They managed nine at Old Trafford not so long ago, nine at home to Arsenal and 10 at home to Leicester, so have regularly flirted with this line against ‘bigger’ teams.
Burnley have averaged 12 shots over their last 14 games, and couple that with the fact that Liverpool have allowed 10+ shots in eight of their last 12, and we have another solid priced value bet.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Liverpool ()
Odds correct 1515 BST (18/05/21)
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at and .