What a big game this is down at the foot of the Premier League table.
This match definitely comes under the bracket of ‘six-pointer’, with Brighton in 16th just a point above Newcastle, who are just two clear of 18th placed Fulham.
Steve Bruce’s side come into this on the back of three successive draws, but face a stiff task on Saturday night at the Amex.
Anyone who has been keeping an eye on Brighton this season will know that they are performing at an elite level without getting the results that their performances have deserved.
It is something that I discussed in detail after their loss to Crystal Palace, and their incredible expected goals (xG) numbers are the reason that they are a huge 11/1 to go down despite being just three clear of the relegation zone.
A 2-1 win last weekend at Southampton ended a five-match winless run, and ironically, it was a win that their performance didn’t deserve (xG: SOU 1.00 – 0.84 BHA).
For once, the Seagulls were clinical in attack, but yet again, their defence stood up extremely well, and continues to perform at an elite level.
Since defeat to Manchester City in mid-January, only Chelsea have been better defensively than Graham Potter’s side, according to expected goals against (xGA).
In those ten games, the Seagulls have allowed a sensational 0.75 xGA per game, marginally better than champions-elect City (0.76), which highlights the strides they have made to become more solid.
Newcastle have struggled all season long in attack, being heavily reliant on Callum Wilson for their goals, but with him, Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron out injured, they could struggle to pressure this Brighton back-line.
A 94th minute equaliser was needed for Newcastle to avoid defeat last Friday, but prior to added time, Bruce’s side had created just 0.50 expected goals for (xGF) in another toothless attacking display.
They head into this game having won just two of their last 17 league games, losing 10, unsurprisingly having major issues at both ends of the pitch (1.09 xGF, 1.73 xGA per game).
Effectively, what I am saying is, Newcastle were fortunate last season, and as nothing has changed this season and they are still performing at the same level, results have regressed to an expected level. Basically, their luck has run out.
Unless anything changes anytime soon from an underlying process standpoint, the Magpies could well sleepwalk to the Sky Bet Championship.
Many of you will probably look at the 8/13 quotes about a team who have won just one home game all season and chuckle a little, and could instead be tempted by the 5/1 on offer for the visitors.
That price about Brighton is absolutely fair. It is a good representation of the disparity in quality between these two teams, and basically implies that the hosts would win this game around 57% of the time, which I agree with.
While the hosts may have just one win under their belts at the Amex, their underlying numbers at home are bettered only by Manchester City.
They are averaging 1.99 xGF per game and 0.87 xGA per game, which basically means that they create a host of chances while limiting their opponents to few on a regular basis.
Graham Potter’s side should prove too strong for Newcastle, dominating proceedings throughout, so the 11/10 for them to win a low-scoring game looks a very sensible way in here.
Newcastle will likely be up against it from the first minute, which I suspect will lead to them sitting deep and inviting pressure. This could lead to another betting angle.
Brighton shot lines are the way I’m heading. Sky Bet have the line set at 16+, which is priced at 10/11, but I am willing to chance 17+ BRIGHTON SHOTS at 11/8.
Bruce’s side faced 16 shots last week in what was an open and end-to-end encounter, allowed 16 at Old Trafford, 20 at Stamford Bridge, 18 at home to Southampton, 20 at the Emirates, 16 at Bramall Lane… And the list goes on.
Whoever is in Newcastle’s goal is always needing to be on their toes given the number of shots they face, with only West Brom (14.7) allowing more shots per game this season than the Magpies (14.4).
In recent home games, Brighton have taken 25 shots (Palace), 27 shots (Villa), 19 shots (Spurs) and 16 shots (Fulham), so have a track-record of pulling the trigger.
With all of that in mind, the odds against price about 17+ shots looks a strong play.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 Newcastle ()
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (17/03/21)
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