We have a south-coast derby to kick off the FA Cup quarter finals, with Sky Bet Championship Bournemouth hosting Premier League Southampton, and a day out at Wembley awaits the winners.
There are question marks surrounding both sides heading into this clash though, making it a very difficult betting heat.
It has taken a while, but I am coming around to this Bournemouth team.
Even when flying high at the start of the season in the Championship, I wasn’t sold on the Cherries under the guidance of Jason Tindall.
They sat second in the table heading into the New Year, and had performed like a top six team based on expected goals (xG), but since the turn of the year they have performed like a mid-table team.
Based on expected goals, they have ranked as the ninth best team in the Championship this calendar year, but the recent signs are that things are beginning to turn a corner.
Despite replacing Tindall with Jonathan Woodgate, a marginal upgrade, a combination of players returning to injury and some tough games seems to have straightened them out.
In their last three home games they have played three of the current top six in the Championship, winning two of those against Watford and most recently Swansea, in what was arguably their best performance of the campaign (xG: BOU 2.10 – 0.32 SWA).
Their starting XI in that game looked really good on paper, with a midfield three of Philip Billing, Jefferson Lerma and Jack Wilshere providing excellent balance for the teams attacking players.
Junior Stanislas and Arnaut Danjuma flanked Dominic Solanke on the night, and that is a front three that I think can cause Southampton some issues.
Southampton suffered a 2-1 defeat at home to Brighton last weekend, their 10th loss in the last 12 league games, so confidence is likely on the floor at this stage.
After such a hot start to the season, the Saints have come crashing back down to earth and are now nervously looking over their shoulders, being just seven points above the drop zone.
Even when flying at the start of the campaign, their underlying numbers were that of a bottom half side, and they continue to underwhelm.
I recommend a small stake on that one, with a slightly bigger stake on the BOURNEMOUTH TO QUALIFY.
While Southampton have beaten some decent teams to get to this stage, notably Arsenal and Wolves, they are weaker in personnel heading into this one, and their poor recent run has been extended further.
The first goal could be crucial in this one, as if the hosts strike first, Southampton’s heads could well drop in a ‘here we go again’ thought.
Backing the Cherries in the to qualify market gives you extra security should the game go into extra-time, and it is still a very juicy 7/4.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-0 Southampton ()
Odds correct at 1615 GMT (17/03/21)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit .
Further support and information can be found at and .