Dortmund's 3-2 victory over Sevilla in the first leg came as a slight surprise. It also put them in a strong position to progress, not only do they hold a lead but they have three away goals in the bank too. Even with the circumstances and recent defeats, the LaLiga side still stand a chance of progressing.
They are the outsiders here but Dortmund's 11/10 price on victory in 90 minutes is just too short, particularly when we factor in their current injury issues. Raphael Guerreiro and Jadon Sancho, two regulars in the starting line-up, are expected to be missing while Gio Reyna and Manuel Akanji are also likely to be out. All four were in the squad for the first leg with Reyna being the only one on the bench.
Saturday's 4-2 defeat at Bayern highlighted how Dortmund are still some distance off getting back to the top of the Bundesliga table, even if they took a 2-0 lead early on. They were the only two key chances throughout the game and that is also demonstrated in the expected goals scoreline, which Bayern won 3.00 - 0.62.
Haaland also went off injured in the defeat to Bayern. He should be fit enough to play here and he is Dortmund's main hope of success. Picture it as water leaking out of the tank and Haaland is the tape that Dortmund slap on to cover the crack.
Dortmund's recent form is boosted by the fact they largely faced sides they should be beating. Recent home wins have all been against teams in the bottom-half of the table while Sevilla have faced Barcelona twice in a matter of days, changes were also made to the side that lost to Elche in preparation for this fixture.
Prior to the first defeat to Barcelona, Sevilla had won nine of their previous ten games in 90 minutes, with the loss to Dortmund being the only time they fell short. They bounced back from the defeat in the Champions League with a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna and they can do the same here.
This is a Dortmund side who are in serious danger of failing to qualify for the Champions League next season. Eintracht Frankfurt are holding them out of fourth and Leverkusen are above them and looking to regain the spot - their poor form has helped both Frankfurt and Dortmund in their top-four quests.
Perhaps the preference for Sevilla comes from how sceptical I am about Dortmund. They failed to convince under Lucien Favre and the doubts remain with Edin Terzic at the helm. Results have improved, although they couldn't get much worse, but defeats have come against other top teams (Bayern, Leverkusen and Monchengladbach).
Is this a big game? Most certainly. Are Borussia Dortmund a big game team? Not exactly. The fact that the last trophy came in 2017 may point to Bayern's dominance but it also highlights how they've struggled for success. It's also the same year where they last made the quarter-finals of this competition.
It's a best price of 19/4 that Sevilla progress to the next round of the Champions League, with 4/1 and 9/2 across the board. Even with the 11/5 on an away win looking decent, I'm willing to take the higher odds on the LaLiga outfit doing enough to go through.
He's 50/1 to be first goalscorer with Sky Bet while Betfair and Paddy Power have 55/1 available. We're taking Sky Bet's slightly shorter odds because of the better each-way terms. While five is still generous, a late goal in a high-scoring game would mean it's a losing selection and it's preferable to take the 98 places.
Carlos netted his first goal of the season in the win over Osasuna but it's a surprise to see that there isn't more on his tally. He had two shots in the first leg and that is the fifth time in the Champions League this season where he has had two or more shots in a game.
Both of those first leg shots were on target too. His LaLiga expected goals figure stands at 2.27 yet he's only scored once while his Champions League figure is 1.34 - no goal has come in Europe yet for the defender.
Carlos has been priced up based on his goalscoring record rather than performances and the statistics highlight how he should have had a few more goals this season.
The Sevilla man can score in a game that could upset the odds.
Watching Dortmund go 2-0 up against Bayern, the feeling remained that they will lose the game. I'm not comfortable enough with the hosts being as short as they are for victory and the value comes in taking the visitors to overturn the current deficit.
Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 1-3 Sevilla ()
Odds correct at 1140 GMT (08/03/21)
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