After one win and one defeat in his opening matches as new Birmingham manager, Lee Bowyer has been offered some time to work with his squad during the international break, time that was much-needed given the precarious position the Blues find themselves in.
Birmingham sit just three points above the final relegation spot entering the Good Friday schedule, but Rotherham have four (!) games in hand on Bowyer’s side.
A problem area which Bowyer will be desperate to solve is Birmingham’s lack of goal threat and general troubles with chance creation.
They scored just 26 goals in 36 league games under previous manager Aitor Karanka, averaging a lacklustre 0.93 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
Although there was a little improvement on that front in Bowyer’s opening two games, scoring two goals against play-off contenders Reading, before registering 1.17 xGF at Watford despite a 3-0 loss, Birmingham face a Swansea side known for their defensive solidity, conceding only 28 goals this season.
Steve Cooper’s men have averaged 1.02 expected goals against (xGA) per game over the course of their Championship campaign, ranking as the fifth best team in the league in that metric.
However, Swansea’s struggles up top (averaging 1.17 xGF per game) have resulted in a middling underlying process, which is finally catching up with them in recent weeks, losing their last two league fixtures at a vital point of the season.
Under 2.5 Goals may prove a popular pick considering the tendencies of these two teams here but looks way too short.
As a result of the Swans’ numbers, as well as Birmingham’s inability to create scoring chances, backing SWANSEA TO KEEP A CLEAN SHEET at 13/8 looks a healthier play.
Swansea to keep a clean sheet at 13/8 (General)
Score prediction: Birmingham 0-2 Swansea ()
Odds correct at 1300 BST (31/03/21)
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit .
Further support and information can be found at and .