A 1-1 draw against Greece was hardly ideal preparation for Belgium as they look to win their first major tournament, but they got things back on track with a well-deserved 1-0 victory over Croatia in their final warm-up game before Euro 2020 gets under way, Romelu Lukaku’s first-half strike giving Roberto Martinez’ side the win.
The major worry for Belgium coming into this tournament is certainly their defence, the inclusion of veteran centre-half Thomas Vermaelen, who currently plies his trade in Japan for Vissel Kobe, highlighting the lack of numbers they have at the back.
However, despite Croatia having more of the ball than Belgium on Sunday, they struggled to create many chances, with Thibaut Courtois rarely tested throughout the 90 minutes, and no team actually conceded fewer than the three goals Belgium did throughout the entire qualification process.
In terms of the amount of goals scored in this game, the line looks to be 2.5, with the odds slightly favouring unders, which is understandable when you consider exactly what is at stake. These opening group matches tend to be cautious affairs, and in fact, in the 28 opening group matches in the last three European Championships, only five have seen more than two goals.
These two did meet in qualifying, and both games did go over 2.5 goals, but this is the first game of a major tournament, and the approach from both teams will surely be different.
If we take the true price of a Belgium win (1.73) and multiply it by the true price of Under 2.5 Goals (1.89), we get odds of 3.3, which makes the 11/4 (3.75) on offer for BELGIUM TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS a decent amount of value, so a second bet is recommended at smaller stakes.
Score prediction: Belgium 2-0 Russia ()
Odds correct 1100 BST (08/06/21)
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