Bayern Munich hold a commanding 4-1 lead in their tie with Lazio, a position that sees them as 1/750 favourites to progress to the next round.
The Serie A side need to pull off one of the Champions League's greatest ever comebacks if they are to reach the quarter-finals and that just won't happen.
Bayern are Germany's dominant force. They top the Bundesliga table once again as they aim for another title and find themselves in a strong position to retain their European crown.
With four losses in their last six, Lazio should expect the aggregate score to look uncomfortable at the full-time whistle.
The good news for the neutral is that while simultaneously Chelsea and Atletico Madrid will be playing a game akin to chess in west London, this should provide goals with both teams seeing plenty in their recent games.
It also presents value in the goalscorer market - Bayern will go strong despite their current position.
Goals are fancied in this game with over 2.5 a very short 2/5 across the board. It's hardly a surprise given the attacking strength of the hosts and the fact that they have seen over 3.5 goals in each of their last four outings.
However, with the short prices in the total goals market providing little appeal, it's worth taking OVER 2.5 FIRST-HALF GOALS at the 19/5 on offer with Betfair.
Other bookmakers such as Sky Bet offer 7/2 and that still represents value. It's been a theme of both of these teams recently.
Bayern regularly see goals in the first-half of their games. Two of their last six have seen three or more first-half goals while the four games that fell short all saw the net hit twice. For Lazio, they had three in the win over Crotone while there were two in their game against Juventus before that.
While there was only one against Bologna, Lazio did miss a penalty so that was a first-half that could have also had two.
There is still an odds-against price available on over 1.5 first-half goals here, but with near enough 4/1 on three or more, it's worth being brave.
Taking the 16/1 each-way also gives an anytime goalscorer price of greater than 5/1 due to Sky Bet's 99 place terms.
He's scored in both of his last two outings and also registered four assists across his last three. He's always been a goalscorer who is slightly overpriced and that remains the case here.
Goretzka also has a habit of scoring early.
His strike against Dortmund was the only goal in his last seven where he didn't net one of the games opening two goals.
This habit means I'm also willing to have a small-stakes play on GORETZKA SCORING TWO OR MORE at 66/1.
A high-scoring game, particularly with the majority of those goals going to the hosts, gives this a chance of landing - he has had two or more shots in six of his last seven Bundesliga outings.
There is little appeal in the outright market thanks to Bayern's very short price, so ridiculously low that no value can be found in any combination.
If we were looking for an outright price, I'd have little issue in taking Bayern to win with over 4.5 goals in the game at 5/2 or a Bayern win with both teams scoring at 11/8.
But the best prices can be found in backing GORETZKA and FIRST-HALF GOALS.
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 4-1 Lazio ()
Odds correct at 1050 GMT (15/03/21)
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