Aston Villa's surprise defeat to Sheffield United in midweek left a serious dent in any hopes they had of reaching the top-six this season. For Wolves, they worried Manchester City but were ultimately beaten 4-1 by the Premier League champions-elect - it's been a disappointing campaign for Nuno Espirito Santo's side compared with their previous standards.
9th v 12th doesn't look like an ideal game for the 5:30pm slot on a Saturday but the Molineux meeting was a very eventful 90 minutes. Both sides saw a player sent off with referee Mike Dean showing a grand total of 140 booking points. Anwar El Ghazi's 94th minute penalty won it.
It shouldn't be as action packed this time around with the odds-on price for under 2.5 goals perhaps the best indicator of what we can expect. That doesn't mean we won't see a few cards though, and that is the best path to follow in this contest.
Andy Madley is the referee and his last seven Premier League outings have all seen at least two cards or more. He isn't a 'card happy' official but has shown he can be strict and the peak in the league this season was six yellows, a red and a penalty in Sheffield United's win over Newcastle.
One selection that does represent good value is the 9/2 available with both Sky Bet and William Hill on MATT TARGETT TO BE SHOWN A CARD. The full-back was shown a yellow in the recent win over Leeds while he was booked in the game against Wolves earlier this season.
While Targett isn't a player who commits a lot of fouls on a regular basis, he will likely come up against either Adama Traore or Pedro Neto, perhaps a mix of the two. Traore is Wolves' most fouled player this season with 2.2 fouls against him on average per game. Neto is on 1.3.
It's a surprise to see that he has avoided a booking in his last eight Premier League outings. Those games brought a combined eight fouls but McGinn escaped any punishment. He had three fouls in the previous game against Wolves and that is the second-highest for him this season.
The 20/1 price is a half-point stake play because it seems a tad too big. This is a Villa side who have been shown at least two yellows in four of their last five games.
There is little appeal in exploring the outright market further. Neither side has been consistent in recent weeks and sitting on the fence and taking the draw would be the best course of action here. However, with the prices on offer in the cards market, it's better to explore the bookings and back TARGETT and MCGINN to catch the referee's attention.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Wolves ()
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (04/03/21)
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