A victory for Everton at Villa Park would take them level on points with West Ham in fifth position, making this a must-win for Carlo Ancelotti’s men if there are to keep their top-four hopes alive.
Aston Villa on the other hand have little to play for other than pride and professionalism, long since clear of relegation and nine points adrift of Liverpool in sixth place.
That does not mean Villa will be a pushover for the Toffees though. In fact, Everton could be in for a tough night’s work in the West Midlands.
This fixture was originally scheduled to be played in January, but was postponed due to the Covid-19 outbreak at Aston Villa, meaning these two sides met in the league for the first time this season just two weeks ago, a game that Villa won 2-1.
Villa played well on that occasion and heaped more misery onto Everton at Goodison Park, something that has been a recurring theme for Ancelotti’s men this term, picking up just 19 points from a possible 51 on home turf.
Away from home it has been a completely different story for the Toffees, picking up 36 points on their travels, third only to the two Manchester clubs in that respect, and they demonstrated exactly why they have been so effective on the road as they edged out West Ham 1-0 on Sunday.
There are arguments for and against this, but the main issue arising here is that, due to the “hot hand” fallacy, Everton’s price to win this match has been cut too short, to the extent that they no longer represent value, and in fact the value is now in backing an ASTON VILLA WIN.
In fact, against West Brom in March is the only time in 2021 that Everton have been a shorter price to win an away match than they are in this fixture.
Aston Villa have players more than capable of turning a game on its head, and a home win would hardly be a huge shock, so that is the recommendation in this fixture.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Everton ()
Odds correct at 1315 BST (11/05/21)
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