Arsenal had a roller-coaster week before the international break, impressing greatly in victory in the North London derby over Tottenham, losing at home in the Europa League against Olympiakos and going 3-0 down against West Ham.
Fortunately for the Gunners’ slim chances of qualifying for Europe through the Premier League, Mikel Arteta’s side came back from that deficit at the London Stadium to draw 3-3.
However, that run of results showcased why Arsenal are still Arsenal.
From the highs and the promise of the derby win, to the same old defensive issues at West Ham.
They remain a work in progress under Mikel Arteta, and they are progressing despite the results being up-and-down.
Since a Boxing Day win over Chelsea, the Gunners have collected the fourth most points in the league, ranking as the sixth best team based on expected goals (xG).
Over that period, they have boasted the sixth best xG process, averaging 1.70 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.23 expected goals against (xGA) per game, and those numbers represent the most positive underlying process since Arsene Wenger left Arsenal.
Somewhat surprisingly though, their better performances during that 15-game spell have come on the road, with the Gunners ranked as the ninth best home team since Boxing Day.
They host a Liverpool team this weekend who appear to have turned a corner after a shocking run of results that mainly came at Anfield.
The Reds have won four of their last seven matches in all competitions, and all four of those victories have come to nil and have occurred away from Anfield, including beating RB Leipzig twice in Budapest.
While Jurgen Klopp’s side's chances of qualifying for next seasons Champions League through the Premier League appear slim, being five points behind fourth placed Chelsea, momentum could be key for the Reds in their bid to finish the season in a flourish.
They’ve had major issues defensively through injuries, but the issues have been hampered even further in my opinion by Klopp’s reluctance to play centre-backs at centre-back.
Ultimately, Klopp weakened two positions by playing Jordan Henderson and Fabinho at centre-back instead of their familiar midfield roles, and since returning them to their usual positions (Henderson did get injured), Liverpool have looked more like themselves.
Despite winning only six of 14 away games this season, only Manchester City have a better xG process away from home than Liverpool, with no Premier League team posing more of an attacking threat on the road than the Reds (1.94 xGF per game).
LIVERPOOL TO WIN appeals greatly, and it is very rare that you would see them at odds against for any game, making me believe that they are being underestimated at the Emirates.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Liverpool ()
Odds correct 0820 BST (01/04/21)
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