All ready for Dartmas?
The last thing on my checklist is publishing these World Championship betting tips but if you've already watched our preview show – or read Sporting Life's tournament guide – then you will already have an idea where my head is at ahead of this year's Ally Pally extravaganza which promises us to three weeks of drama, tension, fairytale runs and shocks.
I have had a rethink about one particular player I didn't flag up since the show was record back on December 1 but if you backed anyone based on something I've already said, I've certainly not changed by mind.
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In some ways you could argue this year's World Championship is as wide open as usual given 23 players have picked up titles this season while there have been six different major champions – as you'll see from the list further down.
However, I'm struggling to see anyone other than the 'big three' in the betting getting their hands on the Sid Waddell Trophy on January 3 because quite frankly they tick all the key boxes necessary to do so: great form, seasonal consistency, major-winning calibre, mentally strong in long-format darts, Ally Pally prowess and the ability to hit 100+ averages regularly at the highest levels.
Although it's often said there's too much importance placed on averages, in this day and age, world champions reach or exceed that three-figure mark in most of their matches. And their 'B games' are the majority of the field's A game when it comes to these lengthy contests on the Ally Pally stage.
Michael Smith was certainly ticking every box last year which is why I backed him but his form and consistency just haven't been there in 2023 and he'll need to have to put in a lot more work over the past couple of weeks if he's to successfully defend his crown.
Gary Anderson ticks all the seasonal-stats boxes after a wonderful and resurgent 2023 while historically he clearly ticks the others. It's no wonder he'll be well fancied to win his third world title but he admitted his age and declining mental stamina were crucial in his defeat to Luke Humphries in the Grand Slam quarter-finals and I just feel the Flying Scotsman will run out of steam again after Christmas.
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Ultimately I believe the player with the strongest claim for glory out of LUKE HUMPHRIES, Michael van Gerwen and Gerwyn Price is the one who just can't stop winning majors right now.
Aside from the phenomenally consistent performance levels that Humphries delivers in any type of tournament and format, much has been made of Cool Hand's ever growing mental strength and darts fitness over the past couple of years.
Whereas in the past his head would drop during tough times and the pressure would make him buckle, it now seems he has a psychological edge over everyone else on the circuit.
Just look how he brushed Price aside in the World Grand Prix final, defied Anderson's brilliance in the Grand Slam and how he chased down MVG in the closing stages of the recent Players Championship Finals. He's got it all.
One other key factor in his favour is that he clearly enjoys playing at the Ally Pally.
Even before he made his name in the senior ranks – and, significantly, before he'd sorted out those worrying psychological issues – he managed to reach no fewer than three quarter-finals here. Then last year he managed to battle through to the fourth round despite being very ill before and during the tournament.
Imagine the damage he can do now he's in this state of mind?
Now I've staked my title claims, I’ll next work my way through each quarter of the draw in search of value in other markets…
Chris Hammer joined darts presenter Abigail Davies and commentator Paul Nicholson to guide you through each quarter the 96-player draw in our special preview show which you can watch here.
I'm not sure he'd have what it takes to go two steps further and win this title but he does have a genuine chance of lifting the inaugural Ballon d'Art for hitting the most 180s if he reaches the semi-finals.
Admittedly in the last 10 years – and probably much further back – the winner of this accolade always reaches the final, even if they finish runner-up. However, 12 months ago he only played two matches (54 legs combined) and managed to hit 29 maximums (0.53 per leg), which was only 37 fewer than Michael Smith, who played seven matches (178 legs combined).
Ross Smith fires in 180s more prolifically than anyone apart from Dirk van Duijvenbode, who won't be challenging for this honour due to his injury problems, so I feel he's worth a speculative punt.
Odds to win the quarter: MVG 11/8, Rock 13/2, Noppert 9/1, Bunting 9/1, Heta 12/1, VDB 14/1, Schindler 28/1, 50/1 bar
Michael van Gerwen is understandably the clear favourite here but as I said on the preview show, I fancy Stephen Bunting to take him out in round four.
The Bullet, who was also selected as the quarter winner by Abigail Davies, has been inspired form in recent months and really should have defeated MVG in the Players Championship Finals only to let slip a commanding lead.
Odds to win the quarter: Humphries 8/11, Aspinall 13/2, Chisnall 9/1, Cullen 14/1, Searle 16/1, Van Veen 16/1, Gurney 33/1, Clemens 33/1, 50/1 bar
There's nothing more I need to say about LUKE HUMPHRIES and Dave Chisnall, who I expect to be meeting in the quarter-finals.
Ryan Searle is clearly the biggest danger for Cool Hand in the top section while rising star Gian van Veen will pose problems for Chizzy in round three should he get past last year's semi-finalist Gabriel Clemens.
It's hard to know what to expect from Nathan Aspinall given how much rest he takes these days but the World Matchplay champion does seem to enjoy being written off so won't mind me glossing over his chances this year.
* Tournament sponsors have priced up Chris Hammer's quarter acca at 400/1 and boosted Luke Humphries to 10/3 from 3/1 so head to their and look for the heading and the heading to get those prices *
Posted at 0800 GMT on 12/12/23