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Just like England’s think-tank, bettors have a great deal to consider when trying to formulate plans for the third Test which begins in Ahmedabad on Wednesday.

Having spent the first two Tests of the series toiling away in Chennai, battling spin-friendly bowling surfaces and an SG red ball that offered little in the way of conventional swing and a seam that was virtually destroyed by abrasive conditions, it could be all change at the Motera Stadium.

Firstly, the third instalment of the series is a day-night Test – one England would have surely identified as a must-win match when the tour schedule was first released – while the pink SG ball England will themselves be using for the first time has a seam which is hand-stitched with a black thread that is made from a mixture of synthetics and linen. The aim being to produce a pink ball that is more durable than its Kookaburra competitor – for all that ball is renowned for helping the fast bowlers – while a generous helping of lacquer added to the product in order to improve visibility at night generally aids swing bowlers.

Finally, the first sighting of the pitch in Ahmedabad revealed a grassy surface sitting in the centre of a lush, green square and accompanying outfield. Think Lord’s in April, minus the dark clouds and mass of MCC ties and trilbies.

Of course, India are sure to demand the majority of that grass is burnt off the pitch by Wednesday, but they might not be able to do anything about the lush outfield and certainly not about the ball which will have JAMES ANDERSON, in particular, chomping at the bit.

Plenty was made of Anderson’s omission from England’s starting XI for the second Test – most of it nonsense – after his impressive showing in the opening match of the series, but Chris Silverwood and Joe Root made the right call on this one: start the series with your trump card and then have him primed and ready for the day-night encounter. That is exactly what has happened and at 38 years of age, flogging Anderson to death in the subcontinent in an Ashes year makes little sense.

How England, and Anderson and Stuart Broad, pick their battles from now on could go a long way to defining the success of this team in the next 12 months.

CLICK HERE to read our Virat Kohli interview

Still, given the position of the series, don’t discount the very real possibility of Anderson and Broad renewing their opening bowling partnership for the first time since the summer, with Jofra Archer reportedly in line for a recall, too, having recovered from the elbow niggle that kept him out of the second Test.

That means England might be very tempted to play three frontline quicks, with Jack Leach as the sole spinner and Ben Stokes as the fifth bowler. That would certainly be the preferred option for Root, who will rightly have more faith in his tried and tested battery of pace bowlers, and given the fact he is now shorn of spin options following Moeen Ali’s return to England. With all that in mind, a recall for Chris Woakes, who is England’s best swing bowler after Anderson and whose batting would help fill the void left by Moeen, is not out of the question.

Were that to be the case, 5/1 about the Warwickshire man in the top England first-innings bowler would have to be considered, for all it would be a huge call to throw Woakes back into the lion’s den for such a crucial game having played no cricket of any type since November.

Instead, I’ll play it safe with Anderson who proved in Chennai that he is always a threat, even when conditions aren’t in his favour, and can be relied upon to make use of whatever there is to be gleaned from the surface or atmospherics, should England happen to be bowling when the floodlights come into effect.

Of Anderson’s 611 Test wickets, 115 have now come against India, and 31 of them in India where conditions have rarely been in his favour. The fact his bowling average of 30.09 in India sits favourably with many of his fast-bowling contemporaries from the current era demonstrates the great improvement he has made in Asia in recent years.

As mentioned in my second Test preview, the aforementioned Leach is not to be underestimated should, as expected, spin become a greater factor the longer the match goes on. Once again, the Somerset man is sure to have a big role to play in the second innings.

Rahane was at it again when making a century in the Boxing Day Test at the MCG recently and first-innings 67 in the second Test of this series suggests he remains in good touch.

I wouldn’t put anyone off having a spin on him in the top India first-innings batsman market at 7/1, but Kohli is an obvious threat and I’ll be going solo on this one.

With Sky Bet offering 7/4 about Rahane making a first-innings fifty, and 9/1 for him to convert to three figures, I suggest splitting your stakes accordingly.

Posted at 1920 GMT on 21/02/21


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